FXUS61 KILN 251548
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1048 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
SWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN OCCLUDED FRONT LOCATED TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LOW
LEVEL FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH AN UPR
LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID LVL CIRCULATION OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS. SHOWERS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN HALF CWFA AND SHOULD
DECREASE SOME IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE FRONT IT REACHES THE ERN
HALF CWFA LATE THIS AFTN OR EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO
THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING
UNTIL THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME
SNOW MIX IN BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. AS LOW PRESSURE SPINS IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PIECES OF
ENERGY BEING SHED TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN THE
WESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS ONLY WARRANTS LOW
CHANCE POPS. BUT AS THE LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...00Z MODELS SHOW REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SWINGING A
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. GENERALLY FAVORED WARMER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
AND COOLER GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS A SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH THE REGION. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT TAF SITES. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF IOWA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTH. ALTHOUGH SOLID SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES...MORE
RAINFALL OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME MVFR VISBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS RAINFALL. MVFR CIGS ALREADY AT SOME TAF
SITES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN AN
HOUR OR TWO. OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS IT MOVES THROUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SW...HOWEVER THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. BY THIS TIME PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL
BE MORE SPOTTY AND THEREFORE WENT VCSH BEFORE ENDING PRECIP. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO RISE DURING THE NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT HOWEVER
MOST TAF SITES WILL STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NOVAK
