FXUS64 KLZK 231122 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
522 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DETERIORATING AS RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. BY 18-21Z THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
PREVAILING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE IFR...WITH LOW IFR POSSIBLE
WITHIN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE A
PROBLEM...MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. TAFS ALREADY OUT. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS 
MORNING...WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OKLAHOMA. THE RAIN WILL 
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING...AS THE SYSTEM GETS RAMPED UP IN 
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH HAIL THE MAIN 
CONCERN. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOTS OF WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH OKLAHOMA. AGAIN...WIND SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR. MAIN
CONCERN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...BUT CAN
NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH 
MODELS ARE SHOWING MOVING MORE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING THE COLDER AIR 
INTO THE STATE QUICKER...AND WITH MORE MOISTURE. HAVE INTRODUCED A 
RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS THE AREA FROM LITTLE ROCK NORTH THURSDAY 
NIGHT...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR 
NORTH. WHILE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS...AREAS 
NEAR THE BORDER MAY GET A FEW TENTHS. THE LITTLE ROCK AREA MAY SEE 
FLURRIES IN THE AREA...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND THE CITY MAY 
SEE A DUSTING ON THE GRASS...BUT IT WILL NOT BE A TRUE WHITE 
CHRISTMAS.

THE OTHER BIG STORY WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND THE 
STRONG WINDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED...WITH MUCH OF THE 
AREA RECEIVING 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES. WITH THE 
VEGETATION DORMANT...RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ABSORBED READILY.

DUE TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BREEZY/WINDY 
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. FOR NOW...HAVE ISSUED 
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO UPGRADE IN SOME 
LOCATIONS TO A WIND ADVISORY DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH 
THURSDAY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE LARGE SYSTEM WILL MOVE BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA LATE 
FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...MAY SEE MORE 
MOISTURE MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ALL 
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE AREA BY CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE STATE...AND CONTINUE INTO THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER 
THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS 
ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPPER SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA 
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT 
AND SUNDAY...BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. UPPER 
FLOW WILL FLATTEN OUT TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A 
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN GULF. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE 
TUESDAY...WITH ISENTROPIC UPLIFT DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AT 
THIS POINT...LOOKS AS THOUGH AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE COOL 
ENOUGH FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIP. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A RAIN/SNOW 
MIX MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON CST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING 
FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN 
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57