FXUS65 KABQ 261032
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL ONLY BE
A MEMORY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...AS WINTRY WEATHER RETURNS TO NM.
A RIDGE ALOFT TODAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TODAYS WEATHER...WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABOVE LATE NOVEMBER NORMALS ACROSS THE
STATE. FRIDAY WILL ONLY BE WARMER AS A STRONGER LEE SIDE TROUGH
TAKES SHAPE.
MUCH OF THE ATTENTION THIS MORNING WAS FOCUSED ON THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM AND BEYOND. UPPER LOW NOW LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DIVING SOUTHEAST
INTO OLD MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FIRST IMPACTS OF THE STORM
WILL BE FELT ON SATURDAY...AND MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE
CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER SW AZ...A DEFORMATION ZONE
LOOKS TO SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM QUEMADO TO CHAMA...GIVE OR
TAKE A FEW MILES. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...DURING THE
DAY...SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...AS 700MB TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE -2C. COLDER AIR FILTERS IN
BY SUNDAY MORNING AND MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TURN TO
SNOW. MEANWHILE...A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION THEN TURNS TO AREAS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH 700MB TEMPS QUICKLY
FALLING TO BELOW -8C...MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST WILL RECEIVE SNOW
DURING THE DAY. THEN BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS WELL INTO
OLD MEXICO...THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD...AND GIVEN THE
COLD AIR IN PLACE...LIKELY ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF SNOW. PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE MONDAY. THIS
STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE STATE...BUT THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW THAT WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN AREA REMAINS A QUESTION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT PATH OF THE UPPER LOW...AND EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN APPEAR TO TAKE THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH. THUS...THE SCENARIO DEPICTED HERE MAY CHANGE
AND PEOPLE WITH TRAVEL PLANS THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD WATCH THE
WEATHER CLOSELY.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE WEEKEND STORM. MUCH
DISAGREEMENT STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SECOND SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES LOOK
LIKE COLD AIR WILL LINGER OVER NEW MEXICO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW IS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
GIVEN ECMWF PROGS. GFS LOOKS TO BE FAR TO WARM IN THE EXTENDED AND
LOWERED TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES.
34
&&
.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPING. VFR.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY POOR
VENTILATION AGAIN TODAY. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS FRIDAY ALTHOUGH A
DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN
WIND...AS WILL A SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR AN IMPROVEMENT IN VENTILATION FRIDAY...AND MORESO
SATURDAY AS THE LEE TROUGH AND WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY WARMER TODAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME VALLEY LOCALES MAY REMAIN COOLER THAN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY. SOME MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS MAY BLEED INTO THE GILA REGION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER LOW STATIONED OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA. LINGERING INVERSIONS SHOULD WEAKEN AND DIMINISH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND ARIZONA.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY DIFFICULTIES PREDICTING THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO
FORECAST A SYSTEM THAT IS WARMER...AND TRACKING FARTHER WEST INTO
ARIZONA AND SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LESS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND HIGHER SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVELS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...SHOWERS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY...THEN INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST MONDAY. IT NOW APPEARS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MAY BE
COLDER THAN NORMAL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 18 55 23 / 0 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 57 12 56 14 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 57 13 57 17 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 57 11 58 17 / 0 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 56 13 57 22 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 57 12 59 17 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 58 13 60 22 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 66 24 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 57 13 55 14 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 24 56 25 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 60 25 60 26 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 55 13 56 15 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 53 12 52 15 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 53 12 53 16 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 55 12 56 13 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 59 17 60 21 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 55 21 55 24 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 56 20 56 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 29 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 56 29 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 57 23 58 26 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 56 26 57 32 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 58 19 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 56 25 57 30 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 60 26 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 55 24 54 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 58 16 60 24 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 56 26 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 26 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 29 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 58 28 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 60 20 64 23 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 62 18 66 21 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 61 26 64 27 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 65 34 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 62 25 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 65 28 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 65 29 70 33 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 65 27 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 63 30 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 63 29 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 64 28 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 26 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 64 27 71 36 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 61 26 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34/99
