FXUS62 KTAE 221456
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EST TUE DEC 22 2009

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING OUR WEATHER THIS MORNING. 
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1025MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER 
SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. SKIES WERE CLEAR. MORNING LOW TEMPS 
WERE MAINLY AROUND FREEZING WITH THE PRIZE GOING TO KTLH WITH 29F. 
COASTAL LOW TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 30S. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 
MID TO UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. SURFACE WINDS WERE MOSTLY CALM. 

LOOKING AT THE LARGER SCALE...FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. IS SOMEWHAT ZONAL 
WITH AN UPPER LOW SITUATED IN EASTERN CANADA...A DIGGING TROUGH 
ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. AT 
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ALL THE 
WAY NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN 
CANADA. IN ADVANCE OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER COMING ASHORE ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER.

&&

.UPDATE...WITH MANAGEMENT AT THE HELM TODAY...WE ARE EXPECTING GOOD 
WEATHER. LOOKING AT OUR GRIDS...TEMPS ARE INCREASING SOMEWHAT FASTER 
THAN WE EXPECTED...BUT OUR FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 5 
DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS. 
HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING TEMPS TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. 
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA. 
THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND THE WINDS 
WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST. PATCHES OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN 
LIGHT FOG OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE BY 
MID MORNING. EXPECT PATCHES OF FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK 
WEDNESDAY...AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...AS LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO 7 KNOTS THIS 
AFTERNOON...BECOMING NEAR CALM AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. 
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS WITH 
SEAS RUNNING BELOW A FOOT. EXPECTING WINDS TO STAY IN THE 10-KNOT OR 
LESS RANGE TODAY WITH INCREASING WINDS INTO THE 15-KNOT RANGE 
TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN PREDICTED ARE OCCURRING. IT IS 
POSSIBLE THAT WE MIGHT NOT MEET THE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 
FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON. WE 
WILL MONITOR THIS FOR POSSIBLE CANCELLATION AROUND NOON.

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

GA...NONE.

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR       
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DIXIE...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...           
     LEON...MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DUVAL
REST OF DISCUSSION...WATSON