FXUS63 KFGF 280949
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
349 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AND THE TIMING OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. GFS AND
NAM ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR EARLY...SO WILL USE A FORECAST BLEND FOR
TODAY AND SUNDAY. FOR CONTINUITY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR OUR TUESDAY SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS SLOWER
THAN THE GFS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NAM REMAINS DRIER THAN
THE GFS BUT 00Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARE MOISTURE THAN THE PREV OOZ NAM
RUN. BEYOND PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...MODELS INDICATE RATHER
WEAK FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WEAK TO
MODERATE Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THUS WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE
SHOULD SEE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. MY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE GROUND TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING SFC TEMPS. DO NOT EXPECT SNOWFALL RATE TO BE FAST
ENOUGH TO GET ANY ACCUMULATION DRG THE DAY...BUT STILL APPEARS
BEST CHANCE WOULD BE AFT SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE AIR TEMP DROPS
BACK BELOW FREEZING. LIGHT FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST
OF THE FA...ALTHOUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES MAY BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FLURRY ACTIVITY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LACK OF ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND AND DRIER
AIR MASS WITH WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

TUESDAY...MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING OF NEXT WAVE PUSHING
THROUGH...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO BE FASTER WITH THIS WAVE. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER...CONT TO LEAN TOWARD SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR
CONTINUITY. HAVE BUMPED POPS IN THE NE UP TO THE CHANCE CATEGORY
ON TUE NIGHT...AS THAT BEST DEPICTS THE OVERLAP OF TWO MODELS QPF. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO KEEP THE HIGHEST QPF NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT
CLIPPING LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY. OTHER CHALLENGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS WHEN TO BRING POST FROPA WINDS UP IN
THE DVL LAKE REGION...AND AGAIN...LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION
THUS AM NOT INCREASING WINDS UNTIL TUE EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH POCKETS OF MVFR HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE GFK REGION. A MID LEVEL CIG WILL FORM AND
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LIGHT FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AROUND 4K
TO 5K...BUT AN OCCASIONAL DROP INTO THE 2K TO 3K RANGE IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE VCNTY OF
SNOW SHOWERS...MOSTLY AFT 21Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
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