FXUS65 KFGZ 301623
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 AM MST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
THROUGH SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST JOHNS TO PAYSON. COOL EASTERLY WINDS 
WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT WARMING AND DRYING TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLING AND MORE 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...EXPECT 
FURTHER COOLING...INCREASING WINDS...AND A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 
RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING WEST 
SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS SOUTH 
OF A LINE FROM ST JOHNS TO PAYSON. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN 
ARIZONA...SKIES ARE CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOW CLOUDS DOTTING 
SOME AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. ADJUSTED SKY CONDITION ACCORDINGLY IN 
A MINOR UPDATE. EVERYTHING ELSE IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE IS IN GOOD 
SHAPE.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /325 AM MST/...STRONG EASTERLY GRADIENTS AND 
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE LCR IS MAKING FOR AN EXPANSIVE FIELD OF 
LOW-MID CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS 
IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE 
WESTERN RIM. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 
MID-MORNING...BEFORE DRYING FROM THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE...OUR 
SLOW-MOVING CUTOFF LOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE 
IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...WHERE SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE AN INCH OR 
TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TODAY. 

AFTER TODAY...THIS LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE AND ARIZONA 
WILL RESIDE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DRY RIDGE. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL 
PERSIST IN THIS PATTERN...MAKING WARMING DIFFICULT. TO ADD TO 
THIS...A S/WV WILL MOVE DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...PUSHING NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOLER 
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE STATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A MORE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN 
DEVELOPS AND MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING WHAT 
WILL HAPPEN. EITHER WAY...IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT MOISTURE 
WILL BREAK UNDER THE WEST COAST RIDGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND 
MAY INTERACT WITH NORTHERLY STREAM ENERGY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS 
COULD MAKE FOR A VERY WET START TO DECEMBER...BUT IT IS FAR TOO 
EARLY TO BE SURE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...TIL 00Z TUES. EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT 
WILL KEEP UPSLOPE BKN-OVC STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF 
THE WESTERN AND EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...WITH WIDELY SCT -SHRA /-SHSN 
AND LCL TRRN OBSCD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR ANY PRECIP. DEEPER 
MOISTURE OVER THE WHITE MTNS SHOULD PRODUCE  SCT -SHSN AND AREAS OF 
MVFR CONDITIONS AND TRRN OBSCD. SNOW LEVEL NEAR 6000 FT. AFT 00Z 
TUES...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF 
THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALL 
AREAS TIL 01Z TUES NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-20KT...GUSTS TO 30 TO 
35 KT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BECMG LCL TIL 06Z AT KFGZ...KGCN... 
KPRC AND DOWN SLOPE AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HIGH TRRN.  

KGCN METAR OBS ARE UNAVAILABLE...SVC TECHS SOON ON SITE. 
KGCN TAF IS AMD NOT SKED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 
&&
$$

PUBLIC..................HOWARD/PETERSON
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...TC

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.