FXUS63 KFGF 230938
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
338 AM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.SHORT TERM...
BOY...VERY STRANGE STORM SYSTEM UPCOMING AND WHAT A WHOPPER IT
COULD BE. BUT DUE ITS RATHER UNUSUAL TRACK VERY HARD TO FIND
COMPOSITES TO FIT THIS STORM MAKING US STILL A BIT SKIDDISH ON IF
THESE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS WILL INDEED WORK OUT. BUT CANNNOT IGNORE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND EVERY MODEL LOOKED AT FROM 00Z
ECMWF/GFS/NAM/SREF/GEM ALL SHOW VERY SIMILAR QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS WITH
WIDESPREAD 12-18 INCHES IN MOST OF THE FCST AREA. BUT THIS WILL BE
A LONG DURATION SNOW EVENT AND PICKING OUT ANY ONE TIME WHEN SNOW
WILL BE HEAVIER IS A BIT DIFFICULT.

FOR TODAY...WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO ADVECTION OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SE ND/WCNTRL MN. CIGS ARE LOWERING SLOWLY INTO
MVFR RANGE IN THIS AREA AND NWS OFFICES HAVE BEEN REPORTING
WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE IN ECNTRL/SE SD INTO SW MN MAINLY
SOUTH OF A WATERTOWN TO APPELTON MN LINE. THIS MIGHT ADVECT
NORTHWARD INTO WCNTRL MN OR FAR SE ND THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE DONT
LOOK FOR ANY PCPN CHANCES UNTIL THIS AFTN.  

FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WITH A
LONG FETCH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FEEDING INTO THE FCST
AREA ALONG A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE RED RIVER. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY BUT LIKELY SOME BREAK BEFORE A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AREA MOVES IN LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL TROWAL AND DEF ZONE. THIS DEF ZONE WILL ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST THRU THE FCST AREA AND REMAIN OVER PARTS OF
ERN ND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY DYING. 

HPC WWD AND MODEL SNOW TOTALS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE HAS
BEEN GOOD AGREEMENT FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE PAST 24-36 HRS. STILL
DID NOT WANT TO QUITE AS ROBUST AS WHAT THIS GIVES US...BUT CANNOT
IGNORE THE FACT THAT A WIDESPREAD 8 TO 14 INCH SNOW LOOKS LIKELY
WITH POSSIBLY HIGHER AMTS IN WCNTRL SD AND ALONG SD BORDER.

AS FOR WINDS...SFC WINDS WILL PICK UP THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. BUT
WINDS WILL BE DUE TO GRADIENT BTWN SFC LOW AND HIGH AND LACK OF
ANY REAL COLD AIR SURGE AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND SYSTEM ARGUES
AGAINST GOING GANG BUSTERS WITH WIND SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY-FRI NIGHT.
STILL LOOK FOR 20-30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. HESISTANT TO GO
ANY BLIZZARD HEADLINES YET. STRONGEST 850-925 MB WINDS ACTUALLY IN
CNTRL ND AND ESP INTO CNTRL SD.  

ANY ISSUE OF INTEREST WAS WARNING AND WHEN TO GO. METEOROLOGICALLY
MAY NOT REALLY HAVE 6 IN/12 HR OR 8 IN/24 HR IN ANY PERIOD GIVEN
LONG TERM DURATION. BUT SOCIETY IMPACT WILL BE SEVERE SO WILL GO
WITH WARNINGS. START TIME 00Z THU FAR WEST AND SOUTH THEN 06Z GFK-
FAR-DTL THEN 12Z SAT TVF-BDE-BJI. THIS COORD WELL WITH ALL
SURROUNDING WFO NEIGHBORS.  

.LONG TERM...
NO CHANGES BEYOND SATURDAY AS STORM SYSTEM GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY.  

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS NOW FROM DVL TO BJI WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD.
CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER THRU THE DAY AND THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER FAR SE ND INTO WCNTRL MN AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY SLIP INTO THE IFR CATEGORY
MOST SITES TONIGHT WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
EASTERLY NR 10KTS.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY 
     FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-053.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY 
     FOR NDZ007-008-016-027-029-030-039-054.

MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY 
     FOR MNZ029.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY 
     FOR MNZ001>003-007-027-028-030>032-040.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR 
     MNZ004>006-008-009-013>017-022>024.

&&

$$
RIDDLE