FXUS63 KSGF 101122
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CST THU DEC 10 2009

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...

AFTER THE INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES...RESULTING IN A ZONAL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL THEREFORE BE LACKING IN AMPLITUDE
AND PROGRESS QUICKLY TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL THEREFORE BE
HARD TO COME BY. TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN FOCUS AS WE ARE IN
STORE FOR A WARMING TREND.

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A WEST NORTHWEST WIND.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM TODAY...DESPITE THE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OF THE REGION. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE -9 TO -15 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S
TODAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE MET GUIDANCE.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. THE PROBLEM HERE IS THAT WINDS WILL TEND TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 KNOTS. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP
OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. MOST AREAS MAY THEN STEADY OFF LATER
TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE WINDS WILL BE
EVEN LIGHTER. AGAIN WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM THE END OF THIS
WEEK INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY BE HELD
BACK AT TIMES WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION. THE FIRST SUCH TROUGH SHOULD QUICKLY SKIRT THROUGH THE
OZARKS EARLY THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE WILL NOT REFLECT TO
THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF A FRONT...MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO
INDICATE A LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE COUPLED WITH SOME WEAK
PRESSURE ADVECTION. MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED...SO HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NOT SURE HOW DEEP
THE MOISTURE WILL BE EITHER...SO TOUGH TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN A
RAIN OR DRIZZLE SCENARIO. REGARDLESS...THIS EVENT LOOKS MINOR AT
BEST.

WE MAY THEN SEE SIMILAR SETUPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE IS
NO GOOD SIGNAL ON TIMING FROM MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. WILL THEREFORE KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 20
PERCENT. LONG WAVE CHARTS DO INDICATE SOME INCREASING AMPLITUDE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN AN INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS MAY BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT
COLDER AIR.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z KSGF...KJLN AND KBBG TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WISE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$