FXUS64 KFWD 261109 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
509 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS CONTINUE NEXT 24 HRS...AS BROAD SFC HIGH OVER W TX SHIFTS
SE TOWARD THE TX COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT NW FLOW 4-6 KTS...BECOMES
S/SW TNGT. CIRRUS WILL BECOME BKN-OVC TNGT...ESPECIALLY WACO AREA...AS
SRN STREAM UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE IN OLD
MEXICO.

05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009/
SUNDAY COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN THIS MODEL RUN...AND HAVE
SLOWED FRONTAL TIMING A BIT AND RAISED SUNDAY HIGHS FOR THE
NORTHWEST ZONES...SINCE PRECIP SHOULD START LATER AS WELL. I AM
STILL USING ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...AS
GFS CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.

OF INTEREST IN THE EXTENDED...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS NOW BRING
ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
TRACK...HOWEVER...IS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. ECMWF
TEMPERATURES INDICATE RAIN...BUT GFS TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
PRODUCE SOME MIXED PRECIP...AT LEAST IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST DAY THIS NEW UPPER FEATURE HAS SHOWN UP
ON BOTH PROGS...HAVE ADDED LOW CHANCES OF RAIN AND FUTURE RUNS
WILL SHOW WHETHER THIS IS AN ANOMALY OR A NEW SOLUTION.

THE GFS CONTINUES TO TRY TO THROW VARIOUS WINTER WEATHER
SCENARIOS AT NORTH TEXAS...THE LATEST BEING NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN THE NEXT FRIDAY. YES...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR WHEN WINTER
WEATHER CAN HAPPEN...BUT AS EACH EVENT GETS CLOSER THE THE GFS
HAS MODERATED. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HAVE BETTER CONTINUITY IN
ITS SOLUTIONS...AND UNTIL THAT CHANGES I WILL BE LEANING TOWARD
THE ECMWF. LIKE THE BOY WHO CRIED WOLF...EVENTUALLY THE GFS WILL
PROVE CORRECT AND WE WILL HAVE AN EVENT...BUT THERE WILL HAVE TO
BE A CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS BEFORE I WILL BELIEVE IT.   84
 
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  65  41  71  48  70 /   0   0   0   0  10 
WACO, TX              67  42  70  48  69 /   0   0   0   0  10 
PARIS, TX             61  35  67  43  67 /   0   0   0   0  10 
DENTON, TX            65  39  71  47  70 /   0   0   0   0  10 
MCKINNEY, TX          64  38  70  46  68 /   0   0   0   0  10 
DALLAS, TX            65  41  71  48  70 /   0   0   0   0  10 
TERRELL, TX           64  40  70  47  68 /   0   0   0   0  10 
CORSICANA, TX         65  43  69  48  68 /   0   0   0   0  10 
TEMPLE, TX            66  41  70  49  69 /   0   0   0   0  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

05/84