FXUS64 KSHV 232119
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
319 PM CST WED DEC 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWING SOUTHEAST  ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TOWARD TEXAS. SPECIAL 17Z SOUNDING INDICATES PWS OVER 1
INCH WITH A 45 KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET. SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY COME TOGETHER ACROSS EAST TEXAS AS UPPER
LOW LINES UP TO FORCE IT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES REMAIN A THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...TORNADO WATCH 805 IN EFFECT THROUGH 9
PM.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
AS SHOWERS STREAM NORTHWARD WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA PROVIDING A MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED
RAINFALL. COLD FRONT...WITH ASSOCIATED SQUALL LINE...WILL PROVIDE
AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON THURSDAY.

WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON THURSDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERS IN MUCH COLDER AIR. WINDS FORECAST TO RELAX AROUND SUNSET.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE OUTGOING UPPER LOW MAY PROVIDE
FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR
EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. 

OTHERWISE...COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TUESDAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR BELOW FREEZING EACH NIGHT. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE INVOLVES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER NORTH OF I-20 LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
NATURE OF THIS UPCOMING EVENT. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH 
THURSDAY MORNING.  DRY SLOTTING SHOULD SPREAD FROM W TO E BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A SLOW RETURN 
TO VFR CONDITIONS.  VIII.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  56  30  47  30 / 100  70  10  10  10 
MLU  60  60  31  47  30 / 100  70  10  10  10 
DEQ  54  54  25  43  26 / 100  70  20  10  10 
TXK  54  54  29  43  30 / 100  70  20  10  10 
ELD  57  57  29  46  28 / 100  70  20  10  10 
TYR  49  49  28  45  30 / 100  70  10  10  10 
GGG  51  51  26  47  30 / 100  70  10  10  10 
LFK  52  55  30  50  31 / 100  70  10  10  10 

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     LAZ001>006-010-012>014.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: 
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-153.

&&

$$

05/08