FXUS64 KLUB 241826
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1226 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.UPDATE...
SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DOWNGLIDE OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UA LOW. HOWEVER...A TIGHT MSLP GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RESULT IN HIGH WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE AND THE ROLLING PLAINS. CALLS TO LOCAL
OFFICIALS SUGGEST THAT VISIBILITIES WELL BELOW ONE QUARTER MILE
PERSIST IN BLOWING SNOW. THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR BLOWING SNOW UNTIL 22Z...GIVEN PROG DEPICTIONS OF
SUBSIDING WIND FIELDS DURING THE 19-22Z TIMEFRAME.
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR VIS CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AT BOTH KCDS
AND KLBB GIVEN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW. EXPECT AN
ONSET OF VFR CONDITIONS BY EARLY EVENING AT BOTH SITES. GIVEN
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOG
POTENTIAL ON THE SNOW PACK TONIGHT...BUT THIS COULD BE NEGATED BY
A CONTINUED INFLUX OF VERY DRY AIR. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A
SLIGHT FOG POTENTIAL IN THE KCDS VICINITY...AND THIS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
LONG TERM...
MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS. THE WINTER STORM
AFFECTING WEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LONG GONE BY FRIDAY
MORNING...CENTERED NEAR MO/IL. A CLOSED LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
DIVING DOWN THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES WILL PINWHEEL AROUND THE PARENT
LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED WITH IT LATE FRIDAY. AS THE SECONDARY
LOW SLIDES BY TO THE NORTH IT WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT AND ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF SFC RIDGING...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TOO
DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS SFC
RIDGING IS CONTINUOUSLY REINFORCED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THIS...AS WEST TEXAS REMAINS SITUATED ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE MIDWESTERN STORM...WITH A SHARP RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHERN PLAINS STORM WILL FINALLY
BE KICKED EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND WE WILL SEE BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDE OVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
MODERATION ON MONDAY. THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO STORM SYSTEM
THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST NEXT TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM...AND GENERALLY AGREE THE PASSING WAVE WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT
LIFT/MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION TUE/TUE NIGHT. IT
APPEARS THE PRIMARY MODE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW GIVEN
SOME REINFORCED SFC RIDGING DROPPING IN FROM THE THE MIDWEST.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MAY APPROACH BY DAY 7 OR 8...BUT THE JURY IS
STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 31 8 36 13 40 / 10 0 10 0 0
TULIA 30 9 34 14 39 / 10 0 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 30 10 34 15 40 / 10 0 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 32 11 39 17 43 / 10 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 32 12 38 18 42 / 10 0 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 32 18 44 18 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 33 17 41 18 44 / 10 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 34 13 36 18 42 / 100 0 10 0 0
SPUR 34 15 38 19 43 / 90 0 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 34 17 39 20 44 / 90 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ024>026-030>032-036>038-042>044.
&&
$$
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