FXUS63 KFGF 031552 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
952 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH RECOVERY WILL OCCUR WITH
TEMPS. MORNING LOWS GOT DOWN TO ZERO OR JUST BELOW AROUND THE
CANDO AREA. WAS A BIT WARMER AT KDVL SINCE THE LAKE IS STILL
OPEN. EVEN WARMER ACROSS THE SE FA MAINLY DUE TO THE THICKER
CLOUDS THAT HUNG AROUND ALL NIGHT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUDS...BUT STILL THINK MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY. KIND OF A TOSS UP BETWEEN
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WEB CAMS DO SHOW SOME FAIRLY GOOD
SNOW COMING DOWN IN PLACES SO WILL GO WITH SNOW SHOWERS. CUT BACK
HIGH TEMPS A BIT MORE IN THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH THE FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE
AGAIN TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS ALSO MAKE IT DIFFICULT...AS IT COULD GO
FROM P6SM TO LOWER VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS PRETTY QUICKLY. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 AM CST THU DEC 3 2009/ 

SHORT TERM...
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW CHANCES AND 
TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WITH NO 
REAL PREFERENCE. WILL USE BLEND FOR GRIDS.

REGION WILL REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALTHOUGH MAIN SHEAR AXIS HAS 
SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST LIMITING ANY ELEVATED CONVERGENCE. WATER 
VAPOR LOOP INDICATING DEEPER LAYERED RH WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER 
WESTERN HALF OF ND CLIPPING OUR WESTERN FA. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO 
INDICATING DEEPER LAYERED RH PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST 
AREA TODAY SO WILL UP POPS INTO SCT SW- RANGE. FARTHER EAST SOME 
DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY HOWEVER WITH COLD POOL IN PLACE 
ACROSS FA CANT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. 
OVERALL THOUGH REGION NOT LIKELY TO SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKE 
YESTERDAY. TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO RECOVER MUCH WITH SNOW 
COVER...COLD POOL AND CLOUDS. BASED ON CURRENT READINGS WILL LOWER 
MAX TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NW KEEPING REMAINDER OF FA CLOSE TO 
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. 

COLUMN MOISTENS AGAIN AS ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES THROUGH OVERNIGHT SO 
WILL KEEP LOW RANGE POPS GOING. CLOUDS AND SOME MINOR MIXING WILL 
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR ALTHOUGH GRADUALLY COOLER 
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 

WITH EXITING WAVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING COLUMN 
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME POTENTIAL SOLAR WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS 
WESTERN FA. ANY MEASURABLE SNOW POTENTIAL WILL ALSO DIMINISH DURING 
DAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE EAST. NO REAL WARMING THROUGH 
COLUMN SO TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON COLD SIDE OF AVERAGE. 

GOOD CHANCE FOR CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT AND MIXING LOOKS WEAK. WITH 
SOME SNOW COVER WILL TREND CURRENT TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD. 

SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BUT 
WITH COLD START AND SNOW COVER TEMPERATURES NOT LIKELY TO RECOVER 
SIGNIFICANTLY.

ANY AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ENDS BY SUNDAY ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE 
PASSING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. WITH WIDE VARIANCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS 
WILL MAKE MINIMAL CHANGES TO MID/LONG RANGE. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

GODON