FXUS62 KMLB 230049
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
749 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
FLORIDA SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. CIRRUS SHIELD THAT WAS
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY HAS LIFTED EAST LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
CLEAR SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO
DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
AKA DRAINAGE FLOW DOWN THE PENINSULA. BASED ON CURRENT DEW POINTS
AND ALLOWING A DEGREE OR TWO LOSS AS MOISTURE IS WRUNG OUT AS DEW...
FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.
WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR MINOR AMENDMENTS TO SKY...WIND AND WIND
RELATED GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
DAY SHIFT ZONES DISCUSSION...
WED...WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST WED WILL BOOST TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
70S. THE EAST FLOW WILL ELEVATE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW/MID 50S...SO
EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO AFFECT THE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTH...BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE AN AFTERNOON CLOUD DECK
DEVELOP. NOT EXPECTING THE SKIES TO GO CLOUDY...GENERALLY AVERAGING
PARTLY SUNNY.
THURS-THURS NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THURS AND OCCLUDE OVER THE MIDWEST AS A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURS
NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE E/SE AND
DRAG IN INCREASING MOISTURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURS AND 30/40%
RAIN CHANCES INTO THURS NIGHT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS THURS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID/UPPER 70S AND LOWS THURS NIGHT IN THE LOW/MID 60S...EXCEPT
UPPER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS WARMER.
CHRISTMAS DAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA FRI. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40
PERCENT. ALSO WEAK INSTABILITY OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MORE
FAVORABLE FORCING NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS FRONT SO WILL KEEP ONLY SHOWER
MENTION AT THIS TIME. HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S AND THEN DECREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH LOWS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
SAT-MON (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...POST FRONTAL DRYING AND COOLING WILL
CONTINUE ON SAT. HOWEVER...WITH FAVORABLE JET LOCATION OVERHEAD...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSES AND ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND WILL KEEP
SMALL POP (20%) IN THE FORECAST THRU SUN AFTERNOON. DRYING COMES
BACK INTO PLAY SUN NIGHT AND MON AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL INCONSISTENCY AT THE MOMENT COULD VERY WELL KEEP THIS ENTIRE
PERIOD DRY. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM KISM-KTTS
NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S POSSIBLE FOR HIGHS FURTHER
SOUTH. LOWS MAINLY 45 TO 55 DEGREES...THOUGH A FEW AREAS ALONG THE
COAST SOUTH FROM THE CAPE WILL FLIRT WITH NEAR 60 DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 23/14Z. FEW-SCT025 AS FLOW VEERS ONSHORE AND
MOISTURE PUSHES INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NNW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT
SEAS COMPRISED PRIMARILY OF A 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST
SWELL. WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC.
PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...
WED A VEERING WIND TREND FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST WILL OCCUR...WITH
SPEEDS 5-10 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH BY EARLY
WED...AND ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE WATERS BY WED AFTERNOON.
THE WAVE WATCH CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL BUT THE
DOMINANT WAVE SHOULD TRANSITION TO SHORT PERIOD (3-4) SECOND WIND
WAVES DURING WED.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURS/THURS NIGHT WITH DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST. WINDS WILL INITIALLY START OUT OF THE EAST UP TO AROUND
15-20 KTS EARLY THURS AND THEN SWITCH TO THE SE INCREASING TO
AROUND 20 KTS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE DAY THURS INTO THURS NIGHT.
THIS LOOKS TO BUILD SEAS UP TO 7-9 FT OFFSHORE BY THURS NIGHT. AS
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRI WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE
W/NW KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 45 71 56 77 / 0 0 10 20
MCO 45 71 55 77 / 0 0 10 20
MLB 50 72 60 77 / 0 10 10 20
VRB 54 73 60 78 / 0 10 10 20
LEE 44 71 54 76 / 0 0 10 20
SFB 45 72 55 77 / 0 0 10 20
ORL 48 73 56 77 / 0 0 10 20
FPR 54 74 60 78 / 0 10 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WIMMER
