FXUS61 KAKQ 280857
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
357 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY...BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~973 MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
ME/NEW BRUNSWICK CANADA. TO THE SOUTH...~1020 SFC HIGH PRESSURE
NOW NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN BETWEEN...PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY RELAXING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING. LAPS
SOUNDINGS SHOWING DOWNSLOPE (NW) FLOW JUST OFF THE SFC NOW ON THE
ORDER OF 15-20KT OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS (30-40KT INTO THE NORTHERN
MID-ATL). ALOFT...A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS...WITH A STRONG CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW DIGGING
A UPR TROUGH INTO CALIFORNIA/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
WINDS WL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY TRANSLATES ACROSS EASTERN GULF/SE COAST. LIGHT DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE FOR A SUNNY AND SEASONABLE
DAY ACROSS THE REGION. STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
TODAY. H92 TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 6-8 DEG C SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS
IN THE M/U 50S TO NR 60 INLAND...WITH MID 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE
COAST AND OVER THE EASTERN SHORE.
EXPECT SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUD BY LATE ERY SUNDAY AS MIDLVL
DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES EASTWARD FROM THE TN VLY. OTW...ANOTHER
MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT A BIT TRICKY
CONSIDERING INCREASING HIGH CLDS FROM THE SW. LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 30S TO LWR 40S. MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILDER ON SUN...AS SW WINDS
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HI. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE
60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
TO THE UPR GRT LKS...WITH THE ASSD COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO
THE MIDDLE MO VLY. MEANWHILE...SE SFC RIDGE WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST
COAST WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS FEATURE ALLOWING
FOR A MILD THOUGH INCREASINGLY CLOUDY DAY ON SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO JUMP TO RIGHT AROUND 1 S.D. ABOVE AVERAGE
VALUES...GENERALLY INTO THE MID/UPR 60S INLAND...L/M 60S INLAND.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSHES ACROSS THE OHIO/TN VLYS...THEN PUSHING ACRS THE REGION
MON AFTN THRU MON NGT. CHC FOR SHRAS ALL AREAS MON AFTN...WHICH
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THRU MON NGT OVR THE SE COUNTIES. AT THIS
TIME...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE MORE ANA-FRONTAL I NATURE...WITH
MOST IF NOT ALL PCPN OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL
RANGE FM THE MID 50S NW TO THE UPR 60S EXTREME SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN COLLABORATION W/NEIGHBORING OFFICES...MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES
TO EXTENDED PERIOD. MAINLY WED/THU IN ASSN WITH LATEST SOUTHERN
STREAM LOW.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO PUSH OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. LOOK FOR SOME
LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY INTO ERLY TUE MORNING OVER SE ZONES BEFORE
ENDING NW TO SE AS HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE RGN.
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPR LVL DIGGING INTO CALIFORNIA LOOKS TO DIG
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO MONDAY/TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST TUE/WED AND QUICKLY MOVES TWRDS THE RGN ON LTR WED/THU.
HV INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY AS PER NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND NEWEST
HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS CLOSER TO ECMWF SOLUTION...BLENDED WITH
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. QUESTION THAT REMAINS TO BE ANSWERED IS WITH
THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF ACTUAL SFC FEATURES. THIS MAY BE DUE TO
HOW MUCH INTERACTION OF THE NRN STREAM FLOW GETS INCORPORATED INTO
THE SRN STREAM FLOW. ECMWF TRIES TO INCORPORATE THE TWO LEADING TO
MORE OF A INLAND SFC TRACK...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE TWO APART
UNTIL AFTER SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. CHCS/AMOUNTS OF PRECIP PER USUAL
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND FCST WILL
STAY FAIRLY IN THE MEDIUM OF SOLNS THIS FAR OUT. STAYED CLOSE TO
HPC QPF FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR TDA THROUGH SUN NGT. PTNTL MVFR CIGS W/ PSBL RA W/ FNTL PASSAGE
MIDDAY/AFTN MON...THEN BCMG VFR AGN MON NGT/TUE. GSTY WNW WNDS...ESP
CSTL SITES INTO THIS AFTN...B4 SW WNDS (AVGG AOB 10 KT) TNGT/SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
MOD/STRNG WNW WNDS INTO THIS AFTN/ERY EVE...GUSTS TO GALES (35-40KT)
NRN OCN WTRS...B4 LLVL FLO BCMS WSW TNGT (W/ SPDS LWRG SGFNTLY TO
AOB 15 KT). AT THE SAME TIME...SEAS ON OCN AOA 5 FT UNTIL LTR
TDA...W/ WVS ON THE BAY AVGG 2-4 FT. WL HV GALES CONTG ON NRN TWO
OCN ZNS THROUGH TDA...ELSW...SCAS INTO THIS AFTN/EVE. PREVAILING
SWLY FLO SUN INTO MON...SPDS SLOLY INCRSG FM AFT MDNGT SUN NGT
THROUGH MON MRNG (THOUGH CONDS SHOULD STAY JUST BLO SCA). NEXT CDFNT
CRSS THE WTRS BY LT MON AFTN/EVE...W/ NEXT PD OF AT LEAST MOD LLVL
CAA AND SCAS (UNTIL MIDDAY AND/OR AFTN TUE).
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KAKQ RADAR DOWN AND PENDING REPAIRS THIS MORNING. SEE WBCFTMAKQ
FOR MORE INFORMATION.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...TMG/MAM
LONG TERM...CCW/MAM
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...ALB
EQUIPMENT...NWS/AKQ
