FXUS61 KILN 021342
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
842 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ENERGETIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE REGION. AS IT CROSSES TO THE EAST...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FUNNEL MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PCPN SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY UP
TO ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER. AS 925-850 MB FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT PCPN TO OVERSPREAD
REMAINDER OF FA. WENT AHEAD AND SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST
TIMING OF PCPN ONSET A BIT. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES
AS CLOUDS AND PCPN MAY KEEP THEM FROM REACHING CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF IN THE EVENING FROM SW TO NE...ENDING BY LATER
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT SEE MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN ON
THURSDAY...WITH COLD AIR MIXING IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
FOUND. AN INVERTED TROUGH LAYS OUT OVER SOUTHERN OHIO ON FRIDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. FEEL THAT SOME AREAS WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES ON THIS DAY BUT DID NOT RE-
INTRODUCE IT TO THE FORECAST. COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...LEADING TO
AN UNDERCUTTING OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
FORECAST PERIODS.
HAVE OPTED FOR A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DRY EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME...WITH A FEW CLOSE CALLS...BUT NONE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES ON A FEW OF
THESE SUBTLE FEATURES...FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL...HAVE
PRECLUDED THE INCLUSION OF PRECIPITATION FOR NOW.
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A 500MB TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT MOVING UP
THE APPALACHIANS...BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO STAY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...FLURRIES
OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FOR THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY MEAGER AT THIS POINT.
ON MONDAY THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...WITH
MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS ALSO LOOKS TO HANG JUST
OUTSIDE THE BORDERS OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON
SUNDAY...A SLOW BUT STEADY MODERATION WILL BEGIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TEMPS ARE NEAR MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE TAIL END OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SFC LOW WILL EJECT OUT
OF THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY AND WILL REACH KY BY 00Z. SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE TRACK...AS THEY LIFT IT THRU
CNTRL KY AND ACRS OH BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z.
THINGS MIGHT BE A TAD SLOWER SINCE THE 06Z TAFS. LOOKING AT THE
OBS...THE CIGS MIGHT DROP ALL AT ONCE AS RAIN COMES IN. MOVED
START OF WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK AN HOUR REACHING CVG/LUK AROUND
16Z. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAFS...REACHING CMH/LCK BY 18Z.
AS MENTIONED SFC LOW PASSES OVER TAFS BETWEEN 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME.
CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE AS WELL AS VSBYS JUST
AHEAD OF LOW. AS LOW PUSHES THRU WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W AND WILL
GUST AS COLD AIR WORKS IN. THICKNESSES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARM
ENUF FOR RAIN. PCPN SHOULD START TO CUT OFF AND CIGS SHOULD RISE A
LITTLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...SITES
