FXUS64 KLZK 252312
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
512 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WEST AND
SW WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS OF
10-15...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS WILL START TO RELAX TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE STRONG SFC LOW LIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST OF AR. NRN SITES WILL SEE CIGS DROP BY MID MORNING
TOMORROW...BUT EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE MVFR LEVELS AT
THIS TIME. REST OF THE SITES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
LITTLE IF ANY DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE SHORT TERM MODELS
THAT WOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE ALL ADVERTISING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN BELOW NORMAL. THAT BEING SAID
WILL SIMPLY GO WITH A BLEND OF SHORT TERM MODELS THIS AFTERNOON.
INTENSE SURFACE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND FORECAST
TO WOBBLE ABOUT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL
OCCASIONALLY BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
A RENEGADE FLURRY OR TWO BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE ZONES/GRIDS AT
THIS TIME.
BREEZY WEST TO OCCASIONAL SOUTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ALONG THE GULF. GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN AND WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW CRITERIA ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS. EXPECT THE WINDS TO DROP BELOW CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTH QUICKLY AND WILL DROP THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SATURDAY. SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH
WITH HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE AREA TO DRY OUT FROM THE RECORD SETTING RAINS. MID LEVEL TROF
WILL DROP INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE PERIOD ENDS WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BRING A WEAK SYSTEM ALOFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...A STORM
SYSTEM WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. IT APPEARS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LIGHT MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...
WITH LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES
AND MAINLY RAIN IN THE SOUTH. THIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM AND HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS IN PLACE.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN COME RIGHT OUT OF CANADA...WITH THE POLAR
JET BRINGING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH/EAST...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
NEW YEAR WILL START OFF ON A VERY COLD NOTE.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 25 39 25 39 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 25 50 29 48 / 0 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 19 35 21 36 / 10 10 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 24 44 27 46 / 0 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 25 43 27 46 / 0 10 10 10
MONTICELLO AR 27 50 29 48 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 23 43 26 46 / 0 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 20 35 22 36 / 10 10 10 10
NEWPORT AR 25 40 26 41 / 10 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 28 47 28 47 / 0 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 22 39 25 42 / 0 10 10 10
SEARCY AR 22 41 27 43 / 0 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 26 45 28 46 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
