FXUS63 KLMK 302314
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
614 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD 
AND BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SKIES WILL 
BEGIN CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND TEMPERATURES WILL 
FALL INTO THE LOW 30S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 
NORMAL FOG PRONE AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHERE MORE 
PRECIPITATION FELL OVERNIGHT. 

ON TUESDAY...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND SKIES SHOULD 
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW TO 
MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF A POTENT LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

A COLD ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE THE BIG STORY FOR THIS FORECAST.

IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE A DEEP CLOSED SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL TRACK 
ACROSS TEXAS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH 
AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE RESULT WILL BE A 
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM LOUISIANA TO 
MICHIGAN. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE 
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE NAM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST 
THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS... THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN INTO THE 
LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. 

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT WITH WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE 
OUT OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS AND THE GROUND 
WILL BE FAIRLY WARM SO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT. 

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY 
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE 
NOTED AS THE COLD AIR SQUEEZES THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE OUT OF THE 
AIRMASS. 

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO INTO THE UPPER 40S EVEN WITH 
THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 
LOWER 30S AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING THE UPPER 30S DURING 
THE AFTERNOON. 

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

A DEEP TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO 
VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT 
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL FOR EARLY DECEMBER. SOME WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO 
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...

THE LAST BIT OF STRATO-CU IS DISSIPATING ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION 
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS PUSHING INTO 
THE AREA...IT SHOULD BE A CLOUDLESS NIGHT FOR THE BWG/SDF/LEX 
TERMINALS. THOUGH TOWARDS MORNING...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY DEVELOP AT 
BWG AND POSSIBLY AT LEX AS WINDS DECOUPLE SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER SFC 
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH 4-6 KTS TO KEEP 
THINGS MIXY ENOUGH...PREVENTING VSBYS FROM GOING ANYTHING BELOW MVFR 
RANGE IF THAT. WINDS SHOULD STAY MORE MIXY AT LEX SO WILL HOLD OFF 
ON A VSBY RESTRICTION THERE...AND KEEP THE MVFR MENTION IN AT BWG.

CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 5-9KTS SHOULD BE THE RULE FOR 
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........LMS
LONG TERM.........JA
AVIATION..........AL