FXUS61 KOKX 021430
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
930 AM EST WED DEC 2 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO TRACK NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL PASS WEST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER STORM MAY IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEAR TERM FORECASTS OF TEMPERATURES...DEW POINT TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER WERE JUST UPDATED BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
UNTIL LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES AND CAUSES SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE...TEMPERATURES INITIALLY ARE LOWER AND WILL RISE AT A
SLOWER RATE.
AN OVERCAST CIRRUS SHIELD WILL ADVECT NE ACROSS THE REGION. NEAR
TERM SKY COVER FORECASTS WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS.
MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH CARVING INTO THE US FROM CANADA WITH STRENGTHENING
SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. TEMPS SHOULD
TOP OUT A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND DECENT MIXING
HELP PROP UP TEMPS. EXPECT HIGHS 3 TO 5 DEG ABOVE NORMAL. RAIN EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MODELS...AND 06Z NAM IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY OVER UPSTATE
NEW YORK BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE RAPIDLY LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS JUST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A RISE IN TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM (85 KTS!!) WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE AND
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN A BIT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUSTAINED BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH. ANY
ORGANIZED CONVECTIONS WILL RESULT IN MUCH MORE EFFICIENT MIXING AS
WELL. WITH THESE SPEEDS RIGHT AT THE LOW END OF HIGH WIND
CRITERIA...ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH
NOON THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFINED IT TO ABOUT THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWA...INCLUDING NYC.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY COULD SEE GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH. WILL OBVIOUSLY
BE WATCHING THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH DURING
MORNING HOURS...SO POPS TAPER OFF IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY A DRY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE
ANYWHERE FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IF ANY CONVECTION OCCURS.
FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGH HIGHS ON THURSDAY...WHICH GIVES HIGHS
IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS HOWEVER MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER OR
COOLER DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPS MAY FALL EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSENSUS FOR A COASTAL STORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINTAINS
A TRACK A BIT TOO FAR EAST...AND THE LACK OF A COLD HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH...TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL US AND FAST SW FLOW
OVER THE EAST...RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES ARE EXPECTED.
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...ON HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOL TEMPS DOMINATING SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER EAST
TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE THURSDAY MORNING.
TAF COMMENTS (FORECASTER INSIGHT ON TIMING, CONFIDENCE, TRENDS AND GROUND OPS)
KEWR...CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
THAN INDICATED...DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
KEWR HOURLY WIND FORECAST
ALL WIND DIRECTIONS ARE TRUE...ADD 13 DEGREES FOR MAGNETIC
02/13Z VRB03KT
02/14Z 19004KT
02/15Z 18005KT
02/16Z 18006KT
02/17Z 18006KT
02/18Z 18007KT
02/19Z 18007KT
02/20Z 17009KT
02/21Z 16010KT
02/22Z 16010G17KT
02/23Z 15011G17KT
03/00Z 15012G18KT
KJFK...WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY QUICKER THAN INDICATED
TODAY...PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING. CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES
BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z THAN INDICATED...DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
KLGA...CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
THAN INDICATED...DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
KTEB...CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
THAN INDICATED...DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
KHPN...CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
THAN INDICATED...DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
KSWF...CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
THAN INDICATED...DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
KISP...WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY QUICKER THAN INDICATED
TODAY...PERHAPS BY LATE MORNING. CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES
BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z THAN INDICATED...DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
KBDR...CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
THAN INDICATED...DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
KGON...CIGS/VSBY COULD BE LOWER AT TIMES BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
THAN INDICATED...DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 07Z AND 12Z TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THU...CONDS IMPROVING TO VFR IN AM. GUSTY W TO NW WINDS.
THU NIGHT-FRI...VFR WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
SAT-SUN...CHANCE OF SUB VFR AND GUSTY N WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS TONIGHT...ALL WATERS
NOW HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. LOW END SCA GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON OCEAN WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT FULL GALE BY MID TO LATE
EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SUSTAINED 40 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS OCEAN
WATERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLE EXTREME EASTERN LI
SOUND TONIGHT. AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO STORM FORCE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS. SEAS BUILD UP
TO 17 FT ON THE OCEAN...AND WOULD EXPECT RATHER STEEP WAVES WITH
FAIRLY RAPID ONSET OF STRONG WINDS.
SCA CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY FOLLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING...AND PERHAPS ALL WATERS WILL BE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY AS A
COASTAL LOW PASSES WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THEN QUIET
CONDITIONS SHOULD FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE STILL
POSSIBLE. MINOR URBANIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON WILL KEEP ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HIGH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES PASSING TO THE WEST...AS WELL AS WAVE
ACTION COULD CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTH
SHORE BACK BAYS OF LONG ISLAND THU MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO OCCUR RIGHT AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...BUT DUE TO THE
FAIRLY QUICK PROGRESSION OF THE STORM...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW
AND DECREASE SOME BY THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. DEPARTURES OF
1-1.5 FT ARE NEEDED TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS IN THE
MORNING...2-2.5 FT IN THE EVENING. MODERATE FLOODING APPEARS
UNLIKELY DUE THE SHORT DURATION OF THIS EVENT...BUT WILL STILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE MORE VULNERABLE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAY
LOCATIONS OF NASSAU COUNTY.
HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION...ALONG WITH WASHOVER OF DUNES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND WHERE RECENT
STORMS HAVE BATTERED BEACHES.
SURGE GUIDANCE INDICATING POSSIBLE LOW WATER PROBLEMS WITH BLOW
OUT TIDES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL WATER
LEVELS SHOULD HELP EASE THINGS A BIT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ071>081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BS
NEAR TERM...GC
SHORT TERM...BC/BS
LONG TERM...BS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BS
HYDROLOGY...BC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
