FXUS61 KILN 142335
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
635 PM EST MON DEC 14 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE ARE LIMITED WITH
THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE HAVE KEPT PRECIPITATION MENTION TO
SLIGHT CHANCE. THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY
ALL RAIN...HOWEVER A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN AREAS MAY
SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIX IN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVERNIGHT AS
COLD AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON MAIN FEATURES AND THEREFORE
WENT WITH A BLEND. FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WITH NW FLOW AND CAA A FEW
LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ACROSS EXTREME NW
PORTIONS OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ON TUESDAY
WITH CAA AND THEREFORE HAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH A SLOW FALL DURING THE DAY. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED FALL
OF TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ZONAL MID LVL FLOW WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES TO BE THE BIG QUESTION AS
OPERATIONAL MODELS OSCILLATE ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF COLD UPR
LVL LOW OVER EITHER SE CANADA OR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS A
RESULT...HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE LATEST HPC GUIDANCE AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE MODELS. THIS
SOLUTION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL READINGS
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TIMING OF EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE UPR LVL FLOW WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT AT
THIS JUNCTURE. BEST CHC FOR PCPN SHOULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME AND HAVE PLACED A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS THEN. THEREAFTER...HAVE KEPT SILENT 20 POPS IN THE
ZONES DUE TO COLD NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF
SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS IT DOES...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND CIGS SHOULD DROP INTO MVFR CATEGORY. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MAY EVEN DROP INTO IFR
FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THIS BEING AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. DEEPER MOISTURE IS VERY
LIMITED SO ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOVAK
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...NOVAK
LONG TERM...HICKMAN
AVIATION...JGL
