FXUS64 KMEG 260947
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 AM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH TODAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
SCATTERED CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MOST AREAS.
ANOTHER DRY AND COOL DAY CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD AGAIN
DROP TO NEAR FREEZING IN EASTERN SECTIONS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING AND BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE. BY SUNDAY...A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES AND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE MID
SOUTH. EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO BREAK OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THIS
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNPHASED WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM...SO EXPECT A BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER
THE REGION.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...IN THE FORM OF
AN UPPER LOW...IS NOW FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES AND STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN GULF LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...MUCH COLDER AIR
IS FORECAST TO FILTER INTO THE MID SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BEFORE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO WORK OUT AND
WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF WINTER WEATHER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST ARCTIC BLAST OF THE SEASON MAY BUILD INTO
THE MID SOUTH BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
EVEN COLDER WEATHER POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 KTS AND INCREASE TO 11 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS AFTER 26/14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT MEM/JBR/TUP AND A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MKL BETWEEN 16-20Z AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES
TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED BY 27/00Z.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 53 35 57 40 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 50 30 53 34 / 10 0 0 0
JBR 51 32 55 37 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 53 32 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
