FXUS64 KHGX 072344
AFDHGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 PM CST MON DEC 7 2009
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PD AS SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE DETAILS OF WIND FIELD/VSBYS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. SIDED MORE WITH THE NAM SOLN WHICH SHOWS MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW INLAND AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER VSBYS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS WE WILL
SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING ALL SITES. DO THINK
THE SHWR ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
EXACTLY HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM FRONT GETS IS UNCERTAIN. DO THINK
WINDS WILL QUICKLY CHG TOMORROW FROM NE/E TO SW/W. CEILINGS/VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW AFT. 33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION (249 PM CST MON)...
GULF MOISTURE OVERSPREADING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE
WILL PROVIDE PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A COUPLE
STORMS OFFSHORE AND JUST INLAND TOWARD MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES BACK N AS A WARM FRONT. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF TUE AFTN
FROM SW TO NE AS MOISTURE AXIS GRADUALLY GETS SWEPT EAST OF THE
REGION BY SWRLY WINDS. THE NEXT FRONT SHOULD PUSH THRU THE AREA LATE
TUE NIGHT AND SHOULD COME THRU MOSTLY DRY. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BRING DRY COOL WX THRU THURS. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EWD...ANTICIPATE COASTAL TROF/LOW TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE CLOSE TO
THE COAST LATE FRI INTO SAT BRINGING THE NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP...ESP
CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH TIDE LEVELS LATER IN
THE WEEK AS A LONG FETCH OF MODERATE ERLY WINDS DEVELOP. ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WX ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND. 47
&&
.MARINE...
HAVE A FEW WEATHER IMPACTS ON THE MARINE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. TO START OUT...A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO WAFFLE ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY TOWARD
THE COAST TONIGHT AND LINGER RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE
TUESDAY MORNING. AS IT DOES...FOG WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TO THE
BAYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. THE FOG MAY LIMIT THE VISIBILITY UNDER
ONE MILE FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON
TUESDAY.
THE MODELS THEN INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO AT LEAST CAUTION
CRITERIA ON TUESDAY. IN THE GULF...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM...
ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE REACHED. THE FRONT THEN PUSHES OFF THE
COAST LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS...A LONG EASTERLY FETCH OF MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS MAY THEN
GENERATE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 40
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 50 67 47 58 34 / 50 30 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 55 71 52 62 37 / 70 50 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 59 70 61 63 51 / 70 50 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS
FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
