FXUS61 KBGM 251748
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED
ON THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. COLD AIR FILTERING IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY STREAM OF MOIST MARINE AIR CURRENTLY COVERS
THE CWA. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA... WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
MEASURED IN SOME PLACES. AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE BEEN INDICATED
ACROSS THE POCONOS THIS MORNING LIKELY CAUSING SOME PROBLEMS FOR
TRAVELERS ON THE INTERSTATES IN THAT AREA.

FORCING ASSOCIATED A STRONG SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL JUST BRUSH MAINLY THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PART OF THE CWA LATER TODAY. SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN PA WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AFTER 2 PM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE AS THE MOIST SSE FLOW CONTINUES.
ALL OF THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE PASSES... WITH DRYER AIR FOLLOWING BEHIND THE WAVE ALOFT.
HOWEVER... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATE LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT
OVRNGT AND MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER PD OF PATCHY DZ/FG. WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL KEEP MINS ARND 40F FOR TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY CLDR GMOS SOLN.

AS FIRST WV LIFTS OUT TONIGHT...UPSTREAM H5 LOW CURRENTLY BRINGING 
SNOW TO THE DAKOTAS WILL DROP INTO THE MIDWEST OVRNGT WITH POTENTIAL 
FOR ANOTHER RND OF PCPN LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS VARY 
ON EXTENT OF SFC LOW DVLPMNT OVR THE GREAT LKS THURSDAY WITH GFS THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE AND NAM INDICATING MORE OF A TROF AXIS. EURO AND GEM 
SEEM TO BE A CONGLOMERATION OF THE TWO. 

REGARDLESS OF LOPRES DVLPMNT IT APPEARS THAT FRCG FM UL FEATURE WILL 
NOT MV INTO CWA UNTIL THUR AFTN. THIS WILL LV A DRY MORNING ON TAP 
FOR THE REGION BFR POPS INCRS ACRS THE WEST AFT 18Z. 

SYSTEM PASSES THRU THE GREAT LKS THUR NGT/FRI WITH LOPRES SYSTEM 
RIDING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SWATH OF 
PCPN TO ACCOMPANY UL LOW MVG ACRS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY 
CONSISTENT IN KEEPING EAST COAST LOW FAR ENUF OFFSHORE SO AS NOT TO 
BE A FACTOR IN FCST AS FAR AS PCPN IS CONCERNED. 

HWVR AS LOW OVR GREAT LKS HEADS EAST IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED 
BY COASTAL LOW NR CAPE COD THUR NGT. FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 
WITH CLDR AIR BEING PULLED INTO REGION AT THE SAME TIME NEGATIVELY 
TILTED H5 TROF/LOW MVS ACRS PA. H7 LOW BEGINS TO DVLP ACRS PA BUT 
DOES NOT DEEPEN UNTIL OVR SRN NEW ENGLAND. HWVR THERE IS SOME 
DISCREPANCIES AMNG MODEL SOLNS AS TO WHAT TRACK H5/H7 LOWS WILL TAKE 
WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY COME INTO PLAY IN LATER FCSTS. 

FOR THE MOMENT...THE MORE IMPORTANT QUESTION BCMS WHAT HAPPENS TO 
LOW-LVL TEMPS BY 12Z FRI. TEMPS WILL START OFF TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW 
BUT CLDR AIR BEING DRAWN IN ON BACKSIDE OF EAST COAST LOW WILL LKLY 
ALLOW FOR A MIX OR POSSIBLE CHANGE OVR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE 
THUR NGT. 

TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY LOWER FRI ALTHO NOT TO VRY IMPRESSIVE LVLS AS 
H8 TEMPS FALL TO JUST BLO 0C.  PCPN WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH 
RAIN IN THE VLYS...A MIX OR ALL SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DETAILS 
RMN TO BE WORKED OUT REGARDING ELEVATION DRIVEN SNOWS FOR FRIDAY 
GIVEN SFC TEMPS ABV FRZG BUT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND DECENT LIFT 
WILL BE PRESENT. 

LES EXPECTED FRI NGT WITH ADDN/L ACCUMS LKLY DRG THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS FCST.
PROGRESSIVE UPR LOW MVS EAST OUT OF NEW ENG SAT AND PULLS THE
LEFTOVER MOISTURE WITH IT. STILL SOME LINGERING SHWRS OF RAIN AND
SNOW PSBL THRU SAT IN THE NW FLOW. TEMPS VERY MRGNL FOR SNOW BUT
THE DEEP COLD AIR...SOME FRZN PCPN DFNTLY PSBL. SFC RDGG BLDS IN
FOR SUNDAY WITH WAA. MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPING UP AND OVER THE UPR
RDG TO THE WEST SO SOME CLDS SHD LINGER. MODELS DIVERGE FOR TUE
WITH THE EURO SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WV AND COLD FNT WHILE THE
GFS DEEPLY DVLPS A SFC LOW AND CLSD UPR LOW. EITHER SOLN BRINGS
SHWRS THRU THE AREA INTO THE END OF THE PD WITH THE MAIN EFFECTS
OF THE DFRNCS VERY LATE IN OR AFT THE END OF THE FCST PD. HPC GUID
HAD HIGH CHANCE AND LIKELY POPS FOR THE AREA WHICH SEEMED RSNBL.
WITH THE GNRL AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS...HPC TEMP GUID WAS ALSO
FLWD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR KRME AND KSYR...PREVAILING VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS...WITH
PERISTENT MVFR RESTRICTIONS. 

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...MVFR CEILINGS
ANTICIPATED...LIKELY IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. SOME OF
OUR GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THIS IMPROVEMENT TO VFR COULD
HAPPEN SOONER (BEFORE 12Z). FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS PERIOD.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON (GUSTY AT KSYR)...WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FOR KELM...KITH...AND KAVP...PREVAILING MVFR MUCH OF THE
TIME...FROM THIS AFTERNOON RIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BRIEF
PERIODS OF VFR POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. 

ONCE AGAIN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS FORESEEN BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
THURSDAY...AS A WEDGE OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR COMES IN. THE TIMING
OF THIS IMPROVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN...AS IT COULD HAPPEN SOONER
(AROUND 12Z). 

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT EXPECTED.  

AT KBGM...PREVAILING IFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEREAFTER...IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...THEN VFR EXPECTED. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE'S SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TIMING
(IMPROVING CONDITIONS MAY HAPPEN FASTER LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY).

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT EXPECTED. 

OUTLOOK...

LATE THUR NGT-FRI...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY...IN RAIN OR WET
SNOW. 
FRI NGT-SAT...MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE...IN
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. 
SUN...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR LIKELY.
MON...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...MSE
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ