FXUS61 KCAR 050915
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
415 AM EST SAT DEC 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY AND TRACK SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH OF
THE NOVA SCOTIA ON SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA
EARLY MONDAY. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD FOR SNOW OVER DOWNEAST FOR
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS, NAM, AND GEM NOW INDICATING
3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW OVER DOWNEAST BUT THE ECMWF ON THE LAST TWO
RUNS HAS OVER 7 INCHES FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY. FIRST THOUGHTS WERE TO
ISSUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT WITH TREND UPWARD A WINTER
STORM WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN WASHINGTON COUNTY. SINCE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL NOT START TO AFTER MIDNIGHT, OPTED INSTEAD
FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH WHICH WILL ALLOW A HEADLINE FOR THE
REGION BUT ALSO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE ONE LAST LOOK AT THE
MODELS AND HOPEFULLY DETERMINE IF THIS WILL BE AN ADVISORY EVENT
OR A WARNING EVENT. ONE ISSUE INDICATED IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS
THAT THE STRONGEST UVV MAY BE JUST ABOVE THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WHICH MAY HOLD ACCUMULATIONS DOWN. ALSO, HAVE CONCERNS
ABOUT THE WIND WITH THIS EVENT. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 MPH AND MAY
FRACTURE FLAKES INTO MORE COMPACT SMALLER FLAKES AGAIN KEEPING
ACCUMULATIONS DOWN. HOWEVER, EVEN IF THE SNOW REMAINS LESS THAN 7
INCHES THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND MAY REQUIRE A WARNING OVER
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY. CRITICAL THICKNESS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON OVER DOWNEAST BUT PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW THIS
EVENING. CENTRAL SECTIONS WILL BE JUST ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION BAND WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY FALL TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MORE THAN A FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR
SNOWFALL AND QPF AMOUNTS USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS WITH SNOW
RATIOS AROUND TO 10 TO 1.

SNOW WILL END ACROSS DOWNEAST FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING LATE TONIGHT
AND ENDING JUST BEFORE NOONTIME SUNDAY IN THE EASTPORT AREA. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, MOST LOCATIONS TO
SEE THE SUN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WNW FLOW AND CAA EXPECTED MONDAY NGT. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO TEENS
TO LOW 20S DUE TO CAA BUT LOOKING FOR WINDS AND CLD CVR TO KEEP
TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. DURING MONDAY, A WEAK LOW MOVES
TOWARDS MAINE IN AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT. EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS
DURING THE MORNING AND SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. 
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA MONDAY
NIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF CAA
OCCURS WITH A NW FLOW DURING TUES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS TUES NGT, EXPECT STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SEASON'S FIRST ROUND OF SINGLE DIGIT
TEMPS POSSIBLE. IF TIMING OF THE HIGH OVER MAINE WORKS OUT SUCH
THAT CALM WINDS AND CLR SKIES PERSIST ALL NIGHT, READINGS NEAR
ZERO ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY
AND OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE FA LATER IN THE DAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST TWO DAYS SHOWING A MAJOR
SNOW EVENT OVER MOST OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM AND COULD CAUSE SOME
PROBLEMS FOR COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK, WARM
AIR WILL MOVE INTO COASTAL REGIONS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HOULTON DURING THE NIGHT...CHANGING PRECIP
TO RAIN. COLD AIR SWEEPS IN AGAIN BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH VERY
STRONG NW WINDS AND RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPS. EXPECT FLURRIES IN THE
NORTH AND WEST FROM LATER THURS INTO FRI AS THE COLD AIR WORKS
INTO THE STATE. 
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS OVER KCAR AND KPQI TODAY AND TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS AT KHUL WILL LOWER TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN
LIGHT SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS OVER DOWNEAST SITES WILL LOWER TO IFR
IN SNOW THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR TO OCCASIONALLY MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS EARLY MONDAY.
IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF STATE
LATER MONDAY AND PERSIST MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT. VFR RETURNS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY OUTSIDE OF MVFR CIGS IN NORTH. 
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT, GALE FORCE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST
OF THE REGION LATER SUNDAY, WINDS WILL DECREASE TO SCA CRITERIA.
WITH NORTHEAST FLOW WINDS OVER THE INLETS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS SO
HAVE ISSUE SCA INSTEAD OF A GALE FOR ANZ052.

SHORT TERM: SCA MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WINDS PERSIST OVER THE
WATERS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, DON'T SEE MUCH CHC OF ANY SCA. THERE'S A
CHANCE ANOTHER SCA WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, BUT IT'S TOO CLOSE TO CALL RIGHT NOW. A MAJOR COASTAL
STORM WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE A GALE OR STORM WARNING LATER
WEDNESDAY. 
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING 
     FOR MEZ017-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR 
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOSTER
SHORT TERM...MWALKER
LONG TERM...MWALKER
AVIATION...FOSTER
MARINE...FOSTER/MWALKER