FXUS63 KSGF 091946
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
146 PM CST WED DEC 9 2009

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL DEAL MAINLY WITH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

CURRENTLY...THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY SNOWS NORTH OF THE SGF CWA HAS NOW MOVED OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CWA WITH A
15MB GRADIENT FROM WICHITA TO SAINT LOUIS...THUS THE CONTINUATION
OF GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. PERSISTENT STRATOCU DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA HAS LEAD TO CONTINUED FLURRIES ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...HAS LIMITED MOST DAYTIME HEATING.
EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF KANSAS AND NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THIS SNOW PACK HAVE ONLY CLIMBED INTO THE MID SINGLE DIGITS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS OVERHEAD AND SNOW PACK TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES FOR OUR 
AREA...AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT AND POSITION ITSELF OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI THURSDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL TRAVERSE THE SNOW PACK
OVER WESTERN KANSAS...WHICH HAS CURRENT TEMPERATURES AROUND +10F
TO THE LOW TEENS. AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST
FLOW AND VERY LITTLE IF ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED. SO
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE ON OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
WILL GO WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGIT LOWS FOR THE MORNING. WE KEEP A
WESTERLY TO SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELD THROUGH THE DAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS
FOR HIGHS AS WELL FOR THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING...THE SURFACE
HIGH FORECAST TO FINALLY TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO RETURN TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI.

GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR FREEZING BY THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD SEE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S FOR HIGHS BY THIS TIME. HAVE KEPT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL. ECMWF/GFS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY...WITH VERY LOW QPFS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SUNDAY DRY.

CLAYCOMB

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND GUSTINESS EXPECTED TO END AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...STRATUS EXPECTED TO ALSO LIFT NORTHEAST WITH
THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW. FLIGHT RULES SHOULD GO BACK TO VFR BY
00Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$