FXAK68 PAFC 291414
AFDAFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AKST SUN NOV 29 2009

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

UPPER LEVEL PLANETARY SCALE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SIBERIA TO THE ALCAN
THIS MORNING WITH EMBEDDED SHORTER WAVE TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN
BERING AND CENTRAL GULF. A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING WITH THE MAIN RIDGE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A DEEP LOW IS NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A SECOND LOW
IS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING. A VIGOROUS WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS AROUND THE BERING LOW AND
SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN BRINGING REMNANTS OF THE GULF
LOW INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY AND THEN DISSIPATING THE LOW
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL. THE HURRICANE FORCE BERING LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY ALONG THE BERING SIDE OF THE ALEUTIANS TOWARD BRISTOL BAY BY
EARLY WED. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS DIVERGE... AND THE EC BECOMES THE
PREFERRED SOLUTION...BRINGING THE BERING LOW UP TO NUNIVAK ISLAND ON
THU. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING IN THE WEST...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT
ENTERS THE GULF AND AFFECTS KODIAK ISLAND EARLY MON AND THE KENAI
PENINSULA MON AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON
WED. THE FORECAST UTILIZES THE NAM AND GFS IN THE SHORT TERM...FALLS
BACK ON THE MORE CONSISTENT EC IN THE MID RANGE...AND USES HPC
GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST...HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW AND FRONT MOVE
EAST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE PRIBILOFS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH MON...COLD AIR WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
BERING WITH SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

FOR SOUTHWEST AK...SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
AREAS EAST OF THE TALKEETNAS AND KENAI MOUNTAINS TODAY AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND REFORMS IN THE GULF. SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS
TOWARD THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. ON MON THE FRONT FROM THE BERING LOW WILL
SPREAD RAIN OVER KODIAK IN THE MORNING AND THEN SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT WIND TO
PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MON NIGHT
INTO TUE THE PRECIP FOCUS SHIFTS TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE REST
OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...

IN THE WEST AND OVER SOUTHWEST AK A RIDGE ENDS MOST PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THE NEXT LOW ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
BRINGING RAIN AND WIND AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE AK RANGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK THEN ENDS RESIDUAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY SOUTHEAST OF THE AK RANGE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 195
         HIGH WIND WARNING 185 187 191
         HIGH WIND WATCH 101 125
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 170 172 175 176 179
         STORM FORCE 120 130 150 155 160 165 171 180 185
         GALE FORCE 125 132 138 140 141
FIRE WEATHER...

DS NOV 09