FXUS64 KTSA 281119
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
519 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOUTH
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS AT TIMES FROM 18-00Z. INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WITH A STRATOCU DECK AFTER 09Z WITH POSSIBLE IFR AT KMLC. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF AREA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...COUPLED
WITH MIN AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT WILL CREATE AT
LEAST A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH
ONLY SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS NORTH OF FEATURE.

COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE ALONG/NORTH OF FRONT DURING THE
DAY AS BOUNDARY SWEEPS SOUTHEAST OF FA BY LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. BEHIND THE FRONT...CHILLY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY/SLOWLY FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...STRONG UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO NORTH
TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. ECMWF SOLUTION SLIGHTLY
SLOWER/MORE ROBUST WITH UPPER FEATURE COMPARED TO THE GFS DURING
THIS TIME WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS TUE NIGHT/WED COMPARED TO THE MEX GUIDANCE AND
CONTINUE WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED GIVEN ECMWF HOLDS ARCTIC AIR MASS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14