FXUS64 KLUB 110525
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1125 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS THAT SHOULD BE MENTIONED. AN AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS /MVFR-VFR/ HAVE DEVELOPED ROUGHLY FROM ABILENE WEST TO BIG
SPRING AND MIDLAND. THESE LOW CLOUDS WERE LIFTING NORTHWARD...BUT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH TIME SHOULD KEEP
THE LOW CLOUDS OFF TO THE SE OF THE TERMINALS. IT MAY BE
CLOSE...AND THERE COULD BE AMENDMENTS OVERNIGHT IF THE CLOUDS DO
PUSH FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THEN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. OTHER
CONCERN IS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A RETURN OF SHALLOW MAY RESULT
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING AT THE TERMINALS /FAVORING
KCDS/. HOWEVER...ATTM IT APPEARS THESE IMPACTS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL
JUST AFTER THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST THU DEC 10 2009/
SHORT TERM...
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THE SHORT TERM...WITH A LITTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY TILT AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME WARMING FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES
EASTWARD...THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP DUE TO MOSTLY
EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THE WESTERN PERIPHERAL OF THE CWA
HOWEVER SHOULD REMAIN MORE SOUTHERLY DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL LINGER THRU THE PERIOD IN CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. BY MID MORNING
SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY WHICH WILL ASSIST IN THE
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY.
MEADOWS
LONG TERM...
ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE EXTENDED IS STILL SHAPING UP VOID OF
ANY TANGIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MAIN CHALLENGE HOWEVER
CONCERNS HOW MUCH ARCTIC AIR IS FUNNELED SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A POTENTIALLY ROBUST S/W TROF PIVOTS AROUND A POLAR VORTEX IN SRN
CANADA.
THIS WEEKEND...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE IN PROGRESS
FRI NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD HIGH PRESSURE AND THERE ARE
STILL FAVORABLE SIGNALS FOR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY
OFF THE CAPROCK BY SAT MORNING. FLOW ALOFT MEANWHILE WILL HAVE
TRANSITIONED SWLY PROMPTING A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE TO EXPAND
THROUGHOUT THE CWA BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE 60S. SUBSEQUENT SURFACE
TROF DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FOCUS A BELT OF ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS
PRIMARILY IN THE PANHANDLE...HOWEVER INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY.
NEXT WEEK...MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE PHASES WITH THE MORE ROBUST NORTHERN STREAM TROF.
MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A COLD FRONT SINKING INTO THE AREA LATER IN
THE DAY MONDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC AIR...HOWEVER THE
MAGNITUDE OF THIS COLD PUSH IS STILL AT ODDS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS WITH THE LATTER BEING MORE AGGRESSIVE. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
THE STRATEGY OF UNDERCUTTING MOS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STRUCTURE
AND POSITION OF THE 1038-1041MB SURFACE HIGH FAVORS THIS
IDEA...HOWEVER THIS HIGH DOES NOT APPEAR AS COLD AS THE ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE REGION EARLIER THIS WEEK THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A
NWLY UPPER FLOW VERSUS NLY. THEREAFTER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST SHALLOW
UPPER RIDGING BEHIND THE PROGRESSIVE TROF WITH A POTENTIALLY
FASTER MODIFICATION TO TEMPS THAN IS CURRENTLY THE CASE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 19 53 28 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
TULIA 19 50 27 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 21 50 27 62 36 / 0 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 19 53 29 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 22 50 30 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 25 54 31 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 24 53 29 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 21 46 29 63 37 / 0 0 10 0 0
SPUR 20 49 33 64 38 / 0 0 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 21 52 34 66 37 / 0 0 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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