FXUS65 KABQ 041034 CCA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
315 AM MST FRI DEC 4 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WINTER STORM IS DEPARTING THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF NEW MEXICO.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN CHAVES COUNTY...BUT
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE PRIOR TO 13Z. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL
DISCONTINUE THE WSW AT 6AM MST. ROAD CONDITIONS ARE STILL TRICKY
THIS MORNING PER NMROADS.COM AND WILL MENTION THIS CONCERN WITHIN
THE EXPIRATION PRODUCT AS WELL AS THE GRAPHICAST...WHICH CAN BE
FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ. WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL
BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...AND UNLIKE THE 00Z MODELS
SUGGEST...PROBABLY WILL NOT DISINTEGRATE OVER THE SE PLAINS UNTIL
THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN 15-25F BELOW
EARLY DECEMBER NORMALS. POOR MELTING POTENTIAL TODAY COUPLED WITH
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND LEE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT
SHOULD CURTAIL FOG OUTSIDE OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE
WARMER OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE ERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS
WELL AS THE ERN PLAINS AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. TWO DISTURBANCES IN
A DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING
A THREAT FOR QPF TO THE NRN MOUNTAINS AND THE FAR NE PLAINS. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER PEAKS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL RECEIVE A BOOST ON
SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE...BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE NE/EC PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL STALL OUT BEFORE IMPACTING THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLOSED LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
GREAT BASIN AND TAKE AIM FOR NORTHERN NM DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL
PROJECTIONS AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS FEATURE IS DELAYED.
NONETHELESS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED AND ADVECTED TOWARD
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR WESTERN NM...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TWEAK TIMING AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THERMODYNAMICS SUGGEST THAT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL MENTION WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. DPORTER
&&
.AVIATION...
ALONG AND NORTH OF A KONM TO KCVN LINE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FOG AND PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING MID TO LATE MORNING. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE FOUND IN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS LIKE KLAM AND KAXX WHERE LOCAL
TOPOGRAPHY RESULTS IN MICROSCALE LIFT. FARTHER SOUTH...IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE COMMON THROUGH LATE MORNING AS SNOW
GRADUALLY ENDS AND SOME STUBBORN FOG BANKS LINGER IN PLACES LIKE
KSRR. LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 1 INCH
IN CHAVES AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY
TODAY WITH SOME TURBULENCE ISSUES ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM.
TONIGHT...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY RETURN MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING ROSWELL. HOWEVER...
FARTHER NORTH DRY AIR SHOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN A
CLEAR NIGHT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 44
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
TODAY...LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. CRITICALLY
LOW MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY
AND SPREAD TO MUCH OF THE AREA WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE SATURDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER TODAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 13 TO 23 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH WARMING WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE STATE LOWERING TEMPERATURES AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND KEEPING THEM
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK. HUMIDITIES
WILL ALSO INCREASE. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CROSS FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK. THERE ARE STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES TO RESOLVE...BUT THE SECOND
SYSTEM DEFINITELY LOOKS THE STRONGEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM MAY FORM A CLOSED LOW
AS IT CROSSES THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TUESDAY THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE
NM/CO BORDER. THIS TRACK WOULD RESULT IN VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
TUESDAY AND A SHARP PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THE SYSTEM MAY ALSO TAP SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RESULTING IN MOUNTAIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...OR SO. TIMING IS STILL NOT VERY CLEAR. 44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 34 6 42 21 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 29 -1 40 10 / 0 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 30 2 42 13 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 36 1 46 14 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 32 3 44 11 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 36 0 49 14 / 0 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 34 7 51 15 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 46 14 52 22 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 23 -8 34 4 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 31 7 43 12 / 0 0 0 0
PECOS........................... 25 8 38 13 / 0 0 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 26 -6 36 4 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 18 -8 29 5 / 0 0 0 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 20 -8 32 3 / 0 0 0 0
TAOS............................ 28 -6 38 7 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 36 5 44 14 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 29 10 40 15 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 31 9 41 18 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 33 14 43 22 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 35 17 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 37 11 45 18 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 35 18 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 39 9 48 16 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 36 17 45 22 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 39 14 49 23 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 31 10 44 19 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 30 8 42 18 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 28 13 38 19 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 31 14 43 20 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 35 18 48 22 / 5 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 30 17 44 26 / 10 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 32 9 43 10 / 0 0 0 5
RATON........................... 32 6 44 13 / 0 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 30 14 43 16 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 36 18 46 20 / 0 0 0 0
ROY............................. 33 16 46 19 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 36 18 47 24 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 34 19 47 23 / 5 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 35 18 48 22 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 34 20 47 25 / 10 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 35 20 48 24 / 10 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 35 17 48 23 / 10 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 33 17 47 28 / 10 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 35 15 48 26 / 10 0 0 0
ELK............................. 33 19 47 25 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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