FXUS64 KBRO 270239
AFDBRO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
839 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...THE INHERITED FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. MADE
SMALL CHANGES TO FRIDAY TO REMOVE RAIN WORDING...BUT LEFT GHOST 10
PERCENT POPS IN THE GRIDS. THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING A MID
LEVEL WEAKNESS MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE OVERHEAD RIDGE BUT THINK
THE ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT TOO DRY AND STABLE TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BUT
ELEVATED SPRINKLES. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK CHIMES IN ALOFT...
BUT SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...A WARMING TREND SHOULD GAIN MOMENTUM ON FRIDAY...WITH
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST TOMORROW AND THEN TO SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY NEAR THE COAST ON BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AS PRESSURES DIP UPSTREAM. FROPA MID DAY MONDAY OR A BIT
LATER STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CALL. ONCE THE FRONT GETS THROUGH ON
MONDAY...MUCH OF THE ENSUING WEEK WILL BE CLOUDY...RAINY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL. A MID LEVEL LOW WILL SWING BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY...
PAVING THE WAY FOR A MILD BUT SHORT LIVED RECOVERY ON THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...THE 8 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE
NORTH NORTHWEST AROUND 12 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 16 KTS AND SEAS WERE
AROUND 5 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 6 SECONDS. OBS ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE
INDICATE WINDS ARE FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
THIS EVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER SOUTH TX AND
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO OVRNGT INTO FRI. THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS HAS RELAXED ALLOWING WINDS TO
DIMINISH FROM EARLIER MAXES THIS AFTN. SEAS OFFSHORE PEAKED AROUND
6 FT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN TDA...BUT NOW HAVE STARTED TO
SUBSIDE. ANTICIPATE E TO SE FLOW TO RESUME THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EWD. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PASS THRU THE COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
PROBABLE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND PREVAILING POST FROPA INTO
MIDWEEK WITH ADVISORIES LIKELY. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MARINE
GRIDS ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AS AN UPPER LVL TROF SLIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION ON FRI. A
CONTINUATION OF MID TO HIGH BKN TO OVC DECKS IS EXPECTED ON FRI
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THOUGHT THERE MIGHT BE A SLGT CHC FOR SOME
PCPN LOCALLY ON FRI AS THE UPPER LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATES THRU...
BUT ALL THE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH LOW LVLS REMAINING
VERY DRY...SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD AS THEY VEER WITH TIME
DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU FRI AFTN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 72 62 79 / 0 10 10 0
BROWNSVILLE 54 75 60 81 / 0 10 10 0
HARLINGEN 52 72 60 81 / 0 10 10 0
MCALLEN 53 73 59 83 / 0 10 10 0
RIO GRANDE CITY 51 71 53 80 / 0 10 10 0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 71 58 79 / 0 10 10 0
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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