FXUS64 KLIX 241821 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1221 PM CST THU DEC 24 2009
.UPDATE...
CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 807 DUE TO DIMINISHING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
IN THIS AREA. TORNADO WATCH 808...WHICH IS FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO THE PACKAGE TO INCLUDE NEW TORNADO WATCH FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 6 PM. THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. 32
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
UPDATE...
SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE UP TO NEAR 820
MB AND NEAR 630 MB...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE IS 1.22 INCHES. THE 0
TO 3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUE HAS RISEN TO 554 AND THE 0
TO 6 KM STORM MOTION IS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 27 KNOTS. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE SHIFTING SOUTH THEN
SOUTHWEST ABOVE 650 MB...40 KNOT WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST OFF THE
SURFACE NEAR 1000 FEET.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
UPDATE...
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WATCH 807 WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN CONTINUES TO CHARGE
EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. SLIGHTLY MORE COMPLEX SFC FEATURES WITH COLD
FRONT JUST EAST OF HOUSTON RACING TOWARDS PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN LA. THESE TWO WILL MERGE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AREA OF
STRONG DIFFLUENCE WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG WITH COLD FRONT. LIXCWA
REMAINS IN WARM AND MOIST AREA WITH LOW TO MID 60 TD/S AND MID TO
UPPER TEMPS. 06Z SOUNDING SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. A LARGE DRY SLOT EXISTS FROM
AROUND 600 TO 300MB. WITH A LACK OF UPR LVL FORCING AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY. THIS IS LIKELY THE CULPRIT FOR SUCH LITTLE CURRENT
PRECIP COVERAGE AS LCH HAS A MORE INST AND IS CLOSER TO THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER LOW. MORE DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING AND PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GFSBUF SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
SHEAR AND CAPE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. ONE CONCERN NOTED IN THIS
MODEL SOUNDING IS LOW LEVEL WARMING AROUND 850MB. IN DOING
THIS...AND AREA OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP JUST ABOVE
THIS LAYER. THE POTENTIAL RESULT WOULD BE BETTER TRANSPORT OF STRONG
WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SO...COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SHOULD EXIT THE CWA TONIGHT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40 OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS.
SO TEMPS WILL FEEL COOLER THAN ACTUAL.
LONG TERM...
MUCH MORE PLEASANT...ALBEIT UNSEASONABLY COOL...WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN AND SKIES
SHOULD BE SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WILL LEAD TO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S ALONG THE MS/LA BORDER TO MID 30S ON THE
COAST. DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL FINALLY EJECT
NE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL ENSUE MON AND TUES UNTIL
THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS INDICATE A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH
THAN THE CURRENT MOVING THROUGH...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE FROM LATE TUES NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
MEFFER
AVIATION...
BIG ISSUES THROUGH THE MORNING WILL BE LOW CLOUDS THEN STRONG TO
SEVERE TSRA. KBTR-KMCB WILL HAVE CIGS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
WITH KMSY-KGPT MOSTLY MVFR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY
WITH A SQUALL LINE EXPECTED ALONG IT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 60 KTS. A FEW STORMS
COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AND MAY BECOME SVR PROVIDING AN
INCREASED TORNADO RISK. GRADIENT WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS WELL
WITH SRLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
30KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND VEER
AROUND THE THE WEST. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH KBTR AND KMCB
AROUND 16-17Z THEN KHDC AROUND 18Z...KMSY/KASD 18-19Z...AND THEN
THROUGH KGPT AROUND 19-20Z. 22/TD
MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE EXPECTED.
HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE
TO CONSIDER UPGRADING TO A GALE WARNING IF THE SUSTAINED WINDS GET
UP AROUND 30 KNOTS. SEAS...ALREADY RUNNING 7 TO 10 FEET EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BUILD TO AS HIGH AS 11 TO 13 FEET OVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE MARINE AREA COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE WINDS OVER 50
KNOTS AND ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA CHRISTMAS MORNING...THEN SEAS WILL
STAY UP NEAR 7 FEET OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS EVEN AS WINDS SUBSIDE
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION CHRISTMAS DAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF
THE COLD AIR WILL NOT LET WINDS GET TOO LIGHT OVER THE WATER. IN
FACT...ADDITIONAL SURGES OF COOL TO COLD AIR WILL BRING WINDS UP TO
OR NEAR EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 22/TD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 67 36 47 27 / 100 20 0 0
BTR 68 35 50 30 / 100 10 0 0
MSY 72 42 51 35 / 100 10 0 0
GPT 69 41 51 30 / 100 40 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
BERNARD...ORLEANS...ST. TAMMANY...AND UPPER ST. BERNARD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: LOWER ST. BERNARD...AND LOWER TERREBONNE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
NM.
&&
$$
