FXUS61 KOKX 300240
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
940 PM EST SUN NOV 29 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
HIGH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH CIRRUS HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. DUE TO RADIATIONAL COOLING...TEMPS
HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR CT. HOWEVER...WITH CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD HOLD STEADY...AND EVEN
BEGIN TO RISE.
OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD PRETTY MUCH BOTTOM OUT IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS NYC.
WILL UPDATE THE HOURLY TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LVL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
EAST...RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH
DURING MONDAY. THEY ALSO SHOW A SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO SLOW THE TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO EXIT EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE MIDNIGHT MONDAY.
A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVECTS
SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW GETS CAUGHT UP IN...AND
INTERACTS IN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. 12Z GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN INLAND TRACK...PASSING JUST WEST OR OVER NEW
YORK CITY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS PROGRESS WITH THE SYSTEM...
HOWEVER ITS STILL FASTER WITH LOW MOVEMENT COMPARED TO EC/GGEM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID TO OCCUR WITH
THIS EVENT. HOWEVER...IF THIS LOW PASSES FURTHER EAST...THERE
COULD BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY LATE THURSDAY ON THE BACK END OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY
RAINFALL...IN ADDITION TO STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL TIDAL FLOODING ON THURSDAY.
DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY...AND NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRES APPROACHING ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
MON...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS AREA TERMINALS MON AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE TERMINALS MON EVENING.
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH LATE MORNING. WHEN RA DEVELOPS...CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO MVFR.
SW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KT WILL TURN W WITH APPROACH OF
THE FRONT LATE MON MORNING. WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT...WINDS TURN NW
EARLY MON EVENING. AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS...NW WINDS AROUND 15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. FOR KJFK/KLGA/KEWR...WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 310 DEGREES STARTING AT 22-23Z.
OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MON NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
TUE...VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.
TUE NIGHT...VFR.
WED-THU...IFR POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE LLWS ISSUES.
THU NIGHT-FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH WITH GUSTY W-NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO QUICKLY RETURN
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS STARTING 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
6 PM MONDAY.
ONLY A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS ARE FORECAST AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING OFFSHORE FRONT...
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ON STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...IF NOT GALES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME. MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY AS GUSTY
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES...BASIN AVG RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH DURING MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING.
MORE IMPORTANTLY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ABOVE THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TRACK NORTHEAST NEAR THE
COAST. THIS LOW COULD PRODUCE A 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY...RESULTING IN URBAN FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ330-
340.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GC
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...GC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...GC
HYDROLOGY...GC
