FXUS63 KFGF 021543
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS AND MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY WITH THICK CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE REGION.
THERE IS A BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW FROM GFK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS. THERE IS SOME ENHANCED OMEGA
IN THE MID LEVELS HERE IN RESPONSE TO A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS.
WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NEAR THIS AREA AND SLOWLY SAG THIS
REGION TO THE SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS COULD GET AN
INCH OR SO NEAR THIS ENHANCED SNOW BAND. OTHERWISE...NOT EXPECTING
TOO MUCH CHANGE FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...

EXPECT OVERCAST SKIES AT ALL TAF AIRFIELDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE...ALTHOUGH FURTHER LOWERING OF CLOUD BASES
BELOW 1000 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY SHOULD NOT DROP
BELOW 2 SM. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CST WED DEC 2 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES 
THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS/NAM/ECMWF IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...BUT LEANED
TOWARD GFS SOLUTION FOR FORECAST AS QPF OUTPUT BEST MATCHED
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. 

09 UTC WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES ROTATING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
TROUGH AXIS FROM ELY TO BAUDETTE TO WINNIPEG. REGIONAL WSR-88D
RADARS SHOW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM LANGDON TO DETROIT LAKES AND
ALSO ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING PRIMARY SHORT-WAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
NORTH AND WEST OF MINOT THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. FORCING/
LIFT IS WEAK...BUT COOLER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW/
FLURRY ACTIVITY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS AND
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE SOMEWHAT RANDOM...BUT GENERALLY MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE UPPER WAVE.

GIVEN OVERCAST SKIES TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE LITTLE MOVEMENT
FROM MORNING LOWS. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP SLIGHTLY
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AS DECENT 925 HPA COLD AIR ADVECTION ACCOMPANIES
UPPER WAVE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S IN THESE AREAS AND MID TO
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO INCREASE UP
TO 20 MPH WITH COLD AIR INTRUSION. 

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL AS 
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR FROM CANADA MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS FROM THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. SKIES WILL BE OVERCAST
WITH PERIODIC INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE MINIMAL...GENERALLY NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO. WINDS 
WILL BE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...
BUT WILL REMAIN COOL (HIGHS IN THE TEENS/LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS/SINGLE DIGITS) AS HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES TO THE EAST.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
DK