FXUS64 KOHX 141704 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1104 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009

.UPDATE...
PER SFC OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER MORE
PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO GENERALLY STATE
MOCLDY SKIES REMAINDER OF TODAY. WILL ALSO UP WIND SPEEDS TO DEAL
WITH GUST AS MUCH AS 26 MPH BNA...DROP MORNING DRIZZLE WORDING...
AND RAISE HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009/ 

.UPDATE...
NOT A LOT OF SFC OBS REPORTING DRIZZLE...BUT HAVE RECEIVED
SEVERAL PUBLIC REPORTS OF DRIZZLE CONTINUING ACROSS
THE MID STATE AND EVEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. UPDATED FORECAST
TO EXTEND DRIZZLE WORDING THRU REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
KOHX 12Z SOUNDING...RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND GFS LAV/12Z NAM
GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH SURROUNDING SFC OBS...SUPPORT CLDY SKIES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...BUT CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A BREAK
IN THE CLOUD COVER HERE OR THERE. WITH SLY WIND BETWEEN 5 MPH
TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE MID STATE TODAY...FORECASTED HIGH TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ALONG AND W OF I-65. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATE BEFORE NOON IF NEEDED.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009/ 

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST.

.AVIATION...
INITIAL IFR CONDITIONS AT CSV WITH VSBY DOWN TO 1/4SM IN FOG AND
VERTICAL VISIBILITY AT 100 FEET. BNA TERMINAL AT P6SM INITIALLY BUT
DRIZZLE HAS STARTED SO EXPECT VSBY AND CEILING TO LOWER OVER NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AND COULD BE RATHER ABRUPT AT BNA. DONT THINK WE WILL SEE
MUCH CHANGE IN LOW CLOUDS UNTIL AIR MASS CHANGE TAKES PLACE. EVEN
THOUGH THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE MID STATE THIS EVENING POST
FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL REMAIN AND IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS...SO THINK ANY REAL IMPROVEMENT WILL BE
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AT BNA AND AFTER ABOUT 15Z AT CROSSVILLE.

BOYD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST MON DEC 14 2009/ 

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING WEAK BOUNDARY STILL HANGING DOWN NEAR THE
GULF COAST...WITH WEAK RIDGE JUST NORTH. UPSTREAM...TIGHT SFC LOW
CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN KS...WITH WEAK TRAILING UL TROUGH AXIS JUST
BEHIND.  

SFC LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NE
US TODAY/TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO THE
MS RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z...THEN ACROSS AND JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY
12Z. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW REMAINS VERY LIMITED THUS EXPECT PCPN
DEVELOPMENT TO BE MINIMAL...WITH BEST CHANCE TONIGHT EAST/SOUTH.

UL TROUGH PASSES WHILE SFC/LL CANADIAN HIGH MOVES IN TUES/TUES NIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EARLY TUES EXTREME SOUTH/EAST BUT DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVERALL AS BEST MOISTURE REMAINS WELL EAST/SOUTH
OF THE CWA.

SFC HIGH WORKS SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES ALOFT MID-LATE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY AS 
TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUND.

WEAK COLD FRONT AND UL TROUGH EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH LATE FRI BRINGING
ANOTHER COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND. WEAK MOISTURE SOURCES/IMPULSES 
COMING DOWN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
31/JBW