FXUS63 KICT 160840
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 AM CST WED DEC 16 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES AND ANY
POSSIBLE SNOW CHANCES WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY WEATHER
SYSTEM...FOLLOWED BY TIMING OF NEXT SURGE OF COLDER AIR.

TDY-TONIGHT
A DECENT WEATHER DAY WILL BE ON TAP TODAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING 
WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SNOW PACK WILL 
CONTINUE TO HAMPER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG
WITH SOME FILTERED EFFECTS OF STAR LIGHT HEATING DUE TO CIRRUS
CLOUDS. WE SHOULD SEE MORE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAM INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD HELP KEEP LOWS UP A FEW NOTCHES TONIGHT.

THU-FRI
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM 
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE NORTHWEST COASTAL 
AREA...WHICH IS SLATED TO AFFECT THE AREA FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST IN 
THE DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS...BUT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED SO SNOW 
CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING TOO FAVORABLE FOR THE AREA. THEREFORE WE 
WILL LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SHIFT THEM EASTWARD CLOSER TO 
THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE 
REGION AGAIN ON FRIDAY BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A COOL DOWN 
COMPARED TO THE LAST POLAR AIR SURGE. 

EXTENDED: SAT-TUE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN TOO CONTINUE THIS 
PERIOD FOLLOWED BY NEXT POSSIBLE SHOT OF COLD AIR. MODELS IN DECENT 
AGREEMENT THAT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS IMPULSE LOOK 
MORE FAVORABLE EAST OF THE REGION SO WE WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST 
GOING. THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE DISLODGING OF 
ANOTHER CHUNK OF COLD POLAR AIR...AND RESULTANT COLDER BELOW AVERAGE 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY PERIOD ACROSS KANSAS. TIMING OF 
THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE GOING FORWARD.

JAKUB

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING SURFACE HIGH CONTINUING TO
SHIFT EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE LEE SIDE
TROF WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE
ROCKIES.

COX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  24  48  25 /   0   0  10  10 
HUTCHINSON      45  23  45  24 /   0   0  10  10 
NEWTON          45  23  46  24 /   0   0  10  10 
ELDORADO        46  24  47  25 /   0   0  10  10 
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  27  50  26 /   0   0  10  10 
RUSSELL         35  19  36  21 /   0   0  10  10 
GREAT BEND      39  18  41  22 /   0   0  10  10 
SALINA          38  20  37  23 /   0   0  10  10 
MCPHERSON       42  23  44  23 /   0   0  10  10 
COFFEYVILLE     48  29  49  28 /   0   0  10  10 
CHANUTE         46  30  47  26 /   0   0  10  10 
IOLA            46  27  47  26 /   0   0  10  10 
PARSONS-KPPF    47  30  48  27 /   0   0  10  10 

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$