FXUS63 KLBF 250929 CCA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TYPO
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG WINTER STORM WITH A CHRISTMAS BLIZZARD EVOLVING THIS MORNING 
ACROSS THE PLAINS. STILL A COMPLICATED SCENARIO...WITH TWO SYSTEMS 
EXPECTED TO MERGE TOGETHER INTO ONE POWERFUL STORM THIS MORNING IN 
KS...WITH THAT STORM CENTER TO MOVE SLOWLY FROM KS INTO IA BY LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STALLING. DON/T KNOW IF MODELS STILL HAVE A 
REAL GREAT HANDLE ON EXACTLY HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT...AND TRENDED THE 
FORECAST TOWARD A MEAN /SREF OUTPUT SOLUTION/ RATHER THAN USING ANY 
ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. FIRST AND FOREMOST AFTER COORDINATION 
WITH THE HASTINGS OFFICE...AND IN HOUSE DISCUSSION...HAVE DECIDED TO 
EXPAND THE BLIZZARD WARNING SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE I-80 CORRIDOR. DID 
THIS BASED ON WINDS...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 35 
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50...AND WITH EVEN JUST A COUPLE INCHES OF 
SNOWFALL...FEEL VISIBILITIES ARE GOING TO BE GREATLY REDUCED. ALSO 
LEANED IN FAVOR OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING DUE TO THE FACT THE STORM 
EXPECTED TO HIT QUICKLY...WITH CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE VERY 
RAPIDLY AS SNOW BEGINS TO FALL. ALSO BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS 
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WHERE BLIZZARD 
WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT...WILL LIKELY SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS SNOWFALL RATES INCREASE. KEPT WINTER 
STORM WARNING INTACT FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY...WHERE STORM SNOWFALL 
TOTALS WILL BE HIGH /6 TO 10 INCHES/ BUT WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS 
STRONG IN THE SHADOW OF THE BLACK HILLS. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 
WILL ALSO REMAIN FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND EXTREME 
SOUTHWEST NEB...WHERE SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LESS...BUT BLOWING 
SNOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A PROBLEM. STORM WILL CONTINUE 
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND 
MOVE TO THE EAST...WITH CONDITIONS TO BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. STORM WON/T COMPLETELY BE OVER WITH UNTIL LATE 
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING HOWEVER. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COLD AS WELL...AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO 
BE DRAWN SOUTH BY THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS TODAY AND 
SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE TEENS...WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING 
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 
DID/T MAKE ANY CHANGES BEYOND MONDAY...AS GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN 
GOOD SHAPE.                     

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND IS THE CRITICAL ELEMENT AGAIN FOR AVIATION TODAY. NORTHWEST 
WIND 25G37KT IS LIKELY OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA BY 15Z INCLUDING 
VALENTINE...NORTH PLATTE AND EAST. AN EARLIER ONSET IS LIKELY IN 
VALENTINE...SAY BETWEEN 11Z AND 13Z. SOME GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40KT IN 
THE ONEILL AND AINSWORTH AREAS. BOTH VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL 
VISIBILITY WILL BE WELL INTO THE INSTRUMENT CATEGORY BY 12Z IN 
VALENTINE AND BY 15Z IN NORTH PLATTE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. 
SNOW WILL DIMINISH FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING ABOUT 03Z IN NORTH 
PLATTE BUT NOT IN VALENTINE UNTIL AFTER 15Z SATURDAY.       

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR 
LINCOLN...KEITH...ARTHUR...MCPHERSON...LOGAN...CUSTER...WHEELER...GAR
FIELD...LOUP...BLAINE...THOMAS...HOOKER...GRANT...CHERRY...BROWN...RO
CK...HOLT...BOYD...AND KEYA PAHA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 12 PM CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR 
SHERIDAN.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 12 PM CST /11 AM MST/ SATURDAY FOR 
GARDEN...DEUEL...PERKINS...CHASE...HAYES..AND FRONTIER.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TAYLOR
AVIATION...SPRINGER