FXUS64 KLCH 012155
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...
INTERESTING SYNOPTIC SETUP IN PLACE AROUND THE SRN 1/2 OF THE
CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OFF THE SWRN LA COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PUSHING NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A CUTOFF LOW
SPINNING ACROSS THE TX BIG BEND REGION. LARGE AREA OF RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY COVERING THE ERN 1/2 OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS ALL OF SERN LA AND MUCH OF SRN MS.
MEANWHILE REGIONAL 88DS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WAVE ROUNDING THE LOW COVERING MUCH OF ERN TX
AND HEADING THIS WAY. WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS REMAINING ON THE
STRONG SIDE WITH READINGS AT MOST LOCATIONS AROUND OR ABOVE 20
KNOTS.
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS FIRST ROUND OF
RAIN GRADUALLY MOVES OUT THE AREA ONLY TO REPLACED BY THE SECOND
ROUND ENTERING FROM TEXAS. ADDITIONAL QPFS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS IN MOST LOCATIONS ALTHOUGH ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
SOME SPOTS COULD SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. AS THE CUTOFF FINALLY EJECTS
EWD PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS BEING CARRIED ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE AREA
CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY LOOK
DRY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS BY QUICKLY IN PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
AND THEN COMES FRIDAY...
ATTM MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE OFFERING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH
NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS IS
A LITTLE QUICKER AND BY FAR MORE BULLISH WITH STRENGTH OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION. THE MODEL ACCOMPANIES THE LOW WITH
MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE...MORE LIFT...AND VERY COLD AIR WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPS ALMOST COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING AT INLAND
LOCATIONS FOR 18Z AND 00Z. CLOSER TO THE COAST THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LITTLE MORE LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR. MEANWHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF
CARRY THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WITHOUT ALL
THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GFS. SINCE WE ARE TALKING
DAY 3 FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAVE DECIDED TO NUDGE INHERITED
POPS UPWARD SLIGHTLY WHILE KEEPING ALL PRECIP AS RAIN. DUE TO THE
TIMING DIFFERENCES HAVE HELD ONTO SMALL POPS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IT
SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT THE GFS DOES NOT LOOK TOTALLY OUT TO
LUNCH SO ITS SOLUTION COULD CERTAINLY COME TO FRUITION. STAY TUNED...
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE SWINGS BY. SERIES OF WEAK
VORTS AND DEVELOPING SFC COASTAL TROF SHOULD SPAWN SOME RAIN
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER WILL
ALLOW THE GALE WATCH TO CONTINUE JUST IN CASE. STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES AND BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM PASSES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 46 56 37 57 38 / 90 20 10 10 10
KBPT 45 56 37 56 38 / 90 20 10 10 10
KAEX 44 52 36 53 34 / 90 30 10 10 10
KLFT 49 56 38 56 36 / 90 20 10 10 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING
FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY...WATERS FROM
CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60
NM.
&&
$$
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