FXUS64 KBMX 262128
AFDBMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
328 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2009
.DISCUSSION...
WHILE THE STACKED SURFACE AND UPPER LOW SPINS AWAY UP TO OUR
NORTH...AND GULF MOISTURE TEASES US TO THE SOUTH...CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL REMAIN SQUEEZED IN BETWEEN THE MOISTURE SOURCES TO REMAIN
FREE FROM PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER...SO CONDITIONS WILL ALSO STAY ON
THE COLD SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
THE NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL COME TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECTING OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP DRAW MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF IN
YET ANOTHER TOP-DOWN OVERRUNNING PROCESS. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT THE EARLIEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS AT THIS TIME. MID- AND LOW-LEVEL WET BULBS ARE ALSO CLOSE
TO (IF NOT JUST BELOW) FREEZING AT THIS TIME. IT SEEMS WE OFTEN
GET REPORTS OF SLEET AT THE BEGINNING OF AN EVENT SUCH AS
THIS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POSSIBILITY. ANY PRECIP
AT ALL TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT THOUGH. BY THE TIME THE
PRECIP PICKS UP IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...TEMPERATURES AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
ENOUGH (EVEN IF JUST WARM ENOUGH) FOR ALL RAIN.
AFTER WE GET PAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE DOES GO
DOWN QUITE A BIT DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS LESS
CONSOLIDATED WITH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW HEADING UP THE EAST COAST
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND BRINGS BITS OF MOISTURE THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA RIGHT UP TO SATURDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES A DEFINITIVE
SURFACE LOW UP THE EAST COAST...AND BRINGS DRYING INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA IN ITS WAKE. GIVEN THE RECENT TRACK RECORD WITH THE
MODELS...I AM INCLINED TO GO WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THIS MEANS
KEEPING PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST ONCE WE GET PAST THE
POSSIBILITY OF WRAPAROUND SNOW FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THURSDAY NIGHT.
BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT BY THE TIME WE GET TO NEXT WEEKEND...
THICKNESSES WILL BE DROPPING...AND WE LIKELY WILL HAVE THE COLDEST
DAYS OF THE YEAR UP TO THAT POINT.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
10/ARM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN 26 50 24 42 24 / 0 0 10 0 0
ANNISTON 29 52 27 44 23 / 0 0 10 0 0
BIRMINGHAM 30 50 29 44 27 / 0 0 10 0 0
TUSCALOOSA 30 50 28 45 27 / 0 0 10 0 0
CALERA 29 51 30 44 26 / 0 0 10 0 0
AUBURN 26 52 24 45 23 / 0 0 10 0 0
MONTGOMERY 28 54 31 47 25 / 0 0 10 0 0
TROY 27 54 29 49 25 / 0 10 10 0 0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
