FXUS61 KGYX 252009
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 PM EST WED NOV 25 2009
.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINE
TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE MAINE COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND FINALLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT LOW CLOUDS... FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL BE THE RULE. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND FOG. USED THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPS TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SO POPS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH FOG SLOWLY LIFTING IN THE MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME BRIGHTENING OF THE SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. USED
THE COOLER MET FOR HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE DIGGING 500 MB CLOSED LOW AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT WILL MOVE UP THE COAST THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE A RAINY FRIDAY...AND
WINDY SATURDAY.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT AFFECT ULTIMATE SFC
LOW INTENSITY...WHICH IN TURN COULD AFFECT TRACK OF SFC
LOW...TIMING OF PRECIP...AND STRENGTH OF WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
MAINLY A MARINE CONCERN. RAIN MOVES IN THUR NIGHT...PERHAPS IN SRN
ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA BY
DAYBREAK...AND IT MAY BECOME HEAVY AROUND DAYBREAK AS WELL. BEST
CHC FOR ANY HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE FRI DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING...BUT ALL IN ALL FRI WILL BE RAINY DAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO NW AS LOW TRACKS FROM NR SW ME COAST NE LATE
FRI...AND COULD SEE RAIN BEGIN TO TAPER LATE IN THE THE SW ZONES.
FRI NIGHT SFC LOW WILL TRACK TOWARD THE MARITIMES....AND WILL LKLY
SEE SOME COLD CONVEYOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE CONTINUE PRECIP IN THE
NR ZONES. ALSO...COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN LATE IN THE
DAY FRI...AND CONTINUE TO DO SO OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW A
CHANGE TO SNOW...AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FIRST...BUT THE SNOW
LEVEL LOOKS TO LOWER TO ~1500 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THIS COULD LEAD
TO ACCUMS OF SEVERAL INCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...THAT SFC LOW IS SUFFICIENTLY WOUND UP OVER THE
MARITIMES...AND STRONG NW FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND IT...SO SAT WILL BE
A BREEZY AND COOLER DAY WITH UPSLOPE SHSN CONTINUING IN THE MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. THE DOWNSLOPING ON THE COASTAL PLAINS AHOULD KEEP
IT MAINLY DRY...WITH P/SUNNY SKIES. HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN
SAT NIGHT...AND WILL SEE BOTH WINDS AND UPSLOPE SHSN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT.
SFC HIGH BUILDS TO OUR S SUN AND SUN NIGHT...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SW ON MON. LOTS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND HAVE PUT CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY
PERIOD...AS IT LOOKS LIKE A 500MB TROUGH SWINGS THRU...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE PINNING DOWN THE
2-3 PERIODS THAT SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY EFFECT. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL...SO THE CHC OF ANY PRECIP FALLING AS SNOW WILL BE
GREATER...EVEN TO THE COAST...BUT IT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS. FOR
THURSDAY CONDITION SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS LKLY TO LOWER TO IFR LATE THU NIGHT...WITH
EXTENDED IFR CONDS THRU THE DAY FRI...AND THEN A RETURN TO VFR SAT
MORNING. SAT WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY NW WINDS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS
30 KTS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT. VFR
EXPECTED SAT-SUN NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
HOWEVER SEAS SLOW TO COME DOWN AND WILL CONTINUE WITH SCA IN CASCO
BAY AND PENOBSCOT BAY TILL 6PM AND THE OUTER WATERS UNTIL 6AM
THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...STRONG SE FLOW AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SFC LOW
MOVING UP THE NE COAST WILL LKLY PRODUCE SCA WINDS BY FRI
MORNING...AND THESE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRI. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR THE WATERS...BEFORE THE SYSTEM SHIFTS
NE TOWARD THE MARITIMES. ONCE IT DOES STRONG W-NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND COULD PRODUCE GALES IN THIS
TIMEFRAME. WIND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SAT NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HAWLEY
NEAR TERM...HAWLEY
SHORT TERM...HAWLEY
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/HAWLEY
MARINE...CEMPA/HAWLEY
