FXUS64 KBMX 050550 AAC
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009

.UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: 1011 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/

INTERESTING EVENING AHEAD...NO DOUBT.  UPSTREAM THINGS HAVE 
DETERIORATED MUCH AS EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS IN THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI GETTING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW.  THE GOOD 
NEWS FOR US...THE 00Z BMX SOUNDING CAME IN VERY DRY...WHICH MEANS IT 
WILL TAKE EXTRA TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN AND ALLOW FOR 
SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND.  THAT BEING SAID...THIS MOISTENING HAS 
ALREADY OCCURRED IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AS RADAR RETURNS ARE THE 
STRONGEST IN THIS AREA...AND AS OF 10 PM...HAVE RECEIVED OUR FIRST 
COUPLE OF REPORTS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN SUMTER COUNTY.  THIS TREND 
IS LIKE TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SPREADING 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE 
ATMOSPHERE TO BE SATURATED FOR EVERYONE BY 3 AM...AND ENOUGH RAIN 
HITTING THE GROUND TO GET THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING THAT WILL BE 
NEEDED TO KEEP THE SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS.

THE OTHER GOOD NEWS FOR THE AREA...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ONLY 
EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE FREEZING MARK...SO NO WIDESPREAD TRAVEL 
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.  SOME ELEVATED ROADWAYS COULD BECOME 
SLICK...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED AS THIS HAZARD WILL 
DISAPPEAR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

SO...FORECAST SEEMS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK THIS EVENING. WILL STAY 
WITH CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

27

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER AS -RA AND SOME -SN FILTERING IN FROM 
THE W/SW INTO C AL. THIS TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
NIGHT. LESS CHANCE OF -SN AS WE GO S...IE MGM...EVEN LESSOR CHANCE 
FOR TOI AS THEY SHOULD BE WARMER. MOISTURE SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA 
DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ALONG WITH ANY CLOUDS BY MID MORNING 
MAINLY.

08

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THE 
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-MARENGO-PERRY-DALLAS-BIBB-
CHILTON-AUTAUGA-ELMORE-COOSA-SHELBY-TALLADEGA-CLAY-TALLAPOOSA- 
RANDOLPH-CLEBURNE-CALHOUN-ST CLAIR-ETOWAH-CHEROKEE.

&&

$$

27/08