FXUS64 KLZK 042340
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
540 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009
.AVIATION...
STORM SYSTEM BRINGING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF TX AND LA WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. LINGERING SCT LOW AND MID CLOUDS
CONTINUE ACROSS SERN SITES FOR NEXT FEW HRS...BEFORE THE CENTER OF
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL
SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SRLY WINDS RETURNING TO AR.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CST FRI DEC 4 2009/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING DOWN OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE REGION. UPLIFT
NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE SYSTEM LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL KEEP CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD
SQUEEZE A SNOWFLAKE OR TWO OUT OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES IN...AND THE SURFACE LOW GOES NORTHEAST...THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR OUT. TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOW IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND WEST AND 20S ELSEWHERE.
AIRMASS WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL...AND THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST. NEXT SYSTEM
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH A
POSSIBLE MIX OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AND WEST BEFORE IT EXITS
ON MONDAY.
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM WILL STALL OUT NEAR THE GULF
COAST REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK.
IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODERATING
SLOWLY THROUGH MONDAY.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM...AS MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND
KEEPING ARKANSAS IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN KEEPS
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE STATE...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN
SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE BLENDED THE SOLUTIONS...
BUT WITH LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS. THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE STATE
LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY...BUT WILL WAIT FOR
BETTER CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING ANY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 21 44 27 44 / 10 0 10 20
CAMDEN AR 22 49 28 50 / 10 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 17 43 27 42 / 10 0 10 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 23 48 30 45 / 10 0 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 24 46 29 46 / 10 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 26 47 27 51 / 20 0 10 20
MOUNT IDA AR 20 47 31 43 / 10 0 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 21 44 24 44 / 10 0 10 20
NEWPORT AR 23 45 30 45 / 10 0 10 20
PINE BLUFF AR 26 46 29 48 / 10 0 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 19 46 26 42 / 10 0 10 20
SEARCY AR 23 45 24 45 / 10 0 10 20
STUTTGART AR 27 45 30 47 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...62
