FXUS63 KDDC 250910
AFDDDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2009
.DISCUSSION...
DAYS 1-2...
ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS IN STORE AS DEEP COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THIS MORNINGS SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS DISPLAYED THE DISJOINTED BOUNDARY LAYER AND MID LEVEL
LOWS/GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT CENTERS - FROM THE SOUTHEAST KANSAS 850 MB
LOW, TO THE 500 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE BLACK HILLS WITH ATTENDANT
-30 DEG C COLD POOL ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING. THE 850 AND 700 MB
LAYERS ALSO INDICATED DEEP COLD AIR OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
WELL, WHICH WILL CREEP INTO THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING STRONG
MOMENTUM TRANSFER FOR WINDS ONCE AGAIN IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH OVER MOST
OF THE AREA.
THIS MORNINGS TEMPERATURES AND ONGOING WIND SPEEDS WILL CAUSE WIND
CHILL READINGS TO APPROACH WIND CHILL CRITERIA IN THE NORTHEAST
SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA - GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A NESS
TO STAFFORD COUNTY LINE. HOWEVER WITH THE LIMITED TIMING AND
MARGINAL NATURE, NO WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY LATE MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS
MIXING AND WARMING. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT COUNTERED BY COLD
ADVECTION, MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS TIME,
THEREFORE SLOWLY RISING OR NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES NEARLY AS COLD AGAIN ARE ANTICIPATED WITH
LESS WIND ESPECIALLY TOWARD 12 Z SATURDAY. SOME SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD MINIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING WHILE
COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS. MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE 20 AND EVEN
POSSIBLY 30S ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE TEENS AGAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION REMAINS INFLUENCED BY DEEP COLD AIR AND
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL LOW CENTERS BECOME PHASED
ACROSS IOWA. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BY SATURDAY, AND THESE WINDS MAY AGAIN APPROACH THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT WOULD APPEAR TO BE MORE DUE TO GRADIENT THAN VERY
STRONG JET MOMENTUM.
RUSSELL
DAYS 3-7...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF MOVING THE STRONG
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVING
OUT INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO COME OUT AS AN
OPEN WAVE ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TRY TO SHOW A LOW CLOSING OFF. THERE
IS STILL SOME RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WHICH ISN'T TOO SURPRISING
BEING THAT THIS IS OUT AROUND DAY5/6. IT DOES APPEAR THERE COULD BE
SOME CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE
BEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE.
&&
AVIATION...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE AFTER
15Z. SOME GUSTS TO OVER 40 KNOTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE WINDS
WILL BE DECREASING INTO THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GERARD
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 23 12 27 14 / 10 10 0 0
GCK 21 10 24 14 / 10 10 0 0
EHA 25 14 29 16 / 0 0 0 0
LBL 28 12 30 16 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 19 11 23 14 / 10 10 10 10
P28 27 14 30 18 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST
/5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-
084>090.
&&
$$
FN33/02
