FXUS62 KMHX 101514
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1015 AM EST THU DEC 10 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 515 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING. DEWPTS HAVE PLUNGED FOR ALL INLAND SITES BUT TEMPS SLOWER
TO DROP AS BETTER CAA WILL HOLD OFF TIL LATER THIS MORN...ALSO HAVE
LOTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. INCREASED HIGH TEMPS A BIT
GIVEN WARMER START WITH 55 TO 60 EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS FALLING
QUICKER THAN NORMAL THIS AFTN PER CAA. MOISTURE STREAMING NE JUST
OFF THE CST THIS MORNING. MEASURABLE RAIN SHLD REMAIN OFFSHORE
HOWEVER CANT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR TWO SOUTH CST NEXT CPL HOURS
FALLING FROM MID DECK SO ADDED THAT TO WX GRIDS. PC TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MCLR FROM W TO E LATER
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM THURSDAY...CONTINUED CAA TONIGHT AS 850 TEMPS DROP
INTO THE -2 TO -5 DEG CELSIUS RANGE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR COLD TEMPS
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM UPR 20S INLAND TO UPR 30S BEACHES. DESPITE
SUNNY SKIES FRIDAY ONLY EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 45. FRI NIGHT
LOOKS COLD AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN WITH GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
SETUP WITH LOW DEWPTS. EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM LOWER 20S COOLER
INLAND SPOTS TO LOW TO MID 30S OBX.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED ONSET OF PCPN
ON SATURDAY PER MODEL TRENDS AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVES MOVES OFF THE SE COAST. INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND MOISTURE INFLOW WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER COASTAL FRONT WILL
MAKE INROADS BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE A COLD RAIN ESPECIALLY FOR
INLAND AREAS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY AND SHUD BE A DRY DAY AS
MAIN LIFT AND MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA EITHER SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MON. MODEL CONCENSUS HARD TO COME BY GOING INTO
MIDWEEK SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR DAYS 6/7.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM THU...EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED SOME CONTINUED STRONG
BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS OF 50+KTS...BUT THIS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND A
COLD FRONT PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. THE W FLOW WILL REMAIN A
BIT GUSTY AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA...BUT UNDER
20KT FOR THE MOST PART. SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE W WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CLOUD DECK FOR TODAY...THEN CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THE CAA
WILL KICK IN OVERNIGHT ONCE AGAIN INCREASING WINDS OVER THE
REGION. BY FRI HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED.
OUTLOOK...FOR THE WEEKEND HIGH PRES WILL LINGER TO OUR N...BUT A
WEAK COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN SAT NT/SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
AS OF 1015 AM...WIND OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING MAINLY NORTHWEST
BEHIND FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH DURING THE LATE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
SPEEDS ARE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH GUSTS JUST ABOVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS RUNNING 6 TO 7 FEET. WIND WILL
PICK UP AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND MIXING OF HIGHER SPEEDS FROM JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
PREV DISC...AS OF 230 AM THU...WINDS REMAIN IN STRONG SCA AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT DUE TO STRONG BOUNDARY LVL WINDS. BEHIND
THE FRONT THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF TO MINIMAL SCA 20-25KT OR LESS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SEAS HOWEVER WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE SO
WILL CONTINUE SCA TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE SOUNDS. THE CAA SURGE WILL
SINK IN OVERNIGHT...INCREASE WINDS BACK TO SOLID SCA. THIS WILL PICK
SEAS BACK UP A FEW FEET...BUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ON FRI THE
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA. FOR FRI NIGHT HAVE BUMPED
UP MODEL/GUIDANCE SPEEDS IN RESPONSE TO CAA OVER STILL WARM WATERS.
FEEL GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING MIXING POTENTIAL SO KEPT 10-15KT
OVER WATERS THROUGHOUT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NE ON SAT AS THE HIGH
SLIDES TO OUR N AND A WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR S. THIS
FEATURE WILL SKIRT BY THE REGION SUN INCREASING WINDS TO SCA. AT
THIS TIME NOT ANTICIPATING SIG IMPACTS AS UPPER LVL SUPPORT WEAK FOR
NOTABLE CYCLOGENESIS...SO COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF COASTAL
LOWS THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 230 AM THU...THE RECENT RAINFALL OF 1-2" ACROSS THE REGION
AND MORE NOTABLY UPSTREAM HAS ONCE AGAIN CAUSED RIVERS TO RISE.
THE NEUSE AND TAR RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO BANKFULL IN MANY
LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. KINSTON STAGE HAS CLIMBED
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...SO HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING FOR MINOR
FLOODING AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING TODAY. THE STAGE AT PGV IS
CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THE ROANOKE
RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...AND WITH KERR LAKE POOL
ELEVATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND HIGH DAM DISCHARGES ANTICIPATED OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HRS WILL EXPECT THE RIVER TO REMAIN IN FLOOD FOR THE
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ130-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-
156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ
HYDROLOGY...SJ
