FXUS64 KLCH 260323
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
923 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009
.UPDATE...
QUIET NIGHT...CLR SKIES...TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO NEAR 40 ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS A BIT WARMER A THE COAST.
CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
AVIATION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR. WINDS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND SPEEDS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. DESPITE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY
FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS THE DRY SURFACE AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP
THE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD A FEW DEGREES APART. A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS...WITH CIRRUS MORE
LIKELY TOMORROW AT AREA AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING LEADING TO WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST WED NOV 25 2009/
DISCUSSION...
HARDLY A CLOUD IN THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND
SUBSIDENCE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST IN WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT. NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN TEXAS BRINGING
RATHER LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN
OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
ON THANKSGIVING DAY REINFORCING THE COOL DRY AIR MASS...AND
ALLOWING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST TO QUICKLY
SLIDE DOWN INTO THE REGION...BRINGING EVEN LOWER DEW POINT READINGS.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES CLOSE TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE NEARLY CALM AT THE SURFACE.
BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOW WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING EAST PAC MOISTURE BECOMING ENTRAINED IN
THE SUB-TROPICAL JET PUSHING TOWARD THE REGION. LATEST TIME
HEIGHTS DO SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE MOVING OVERHEAD DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...IF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT
COME ACROSS...SOME OF THE USUAL COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ZONES MAY SEE THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON. AT ANY RATE...SOME
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 190.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF AND A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.
GULF MOISTURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT BEFORE THE NEXT
FRONT MOVES ACROSS. EXTENDED GUIDANCE A LITTLE CLOSER IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
DIFFERENCE ON THE DRYING OUT BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. GFS
WANTS TO KEEP A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERRIDING THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER UPPER LEVEL
TROF WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN QUICKER BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY...ENDING RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE DAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH ECMWF SOLUTION AS IT IS CLOSER IN LINE TO CONSENSUS.
RUA
MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND SCA HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE HOWEVER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF
DRIER COOLER AIR MOVES DOWN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
CONDITIONS CLOSE TO SCA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
ON LATE MONDAY.
RUA
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH 40 65 39 65 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
KBPT 40 65 39 66 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
KAEX 37 63 35 64 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
KLFT 42 64 37 64 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
