FXUS62 KMHX 010314
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 PM EST MON NOV 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE W TUESDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NE WELL TO THE W OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY...LIFTING
A WARM FRONT N THROUGH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE W FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WDSPRD SHRA WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT NOW NEAR 
COAST. BACK EDGE OF CLOUD SHIELD CLOSE TO COASTAL PLAINS AND STLT 
TRACKING PROGS IT TO COAST AROUND 06Z. INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL 
FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER ERN SECTIONS WHILE REDUCING POPS W TO CHC 
03Z-06Z. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPS...BUT MIN TEMPS LOOK ON 
TRACK. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUE AND
SLIDE OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TUE WITH HIGHS
55 TO 60. TUE N WILL START OUT MCLR WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LATE...SHLD HAVE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING INIT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPR 30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S OBX. 

RAPID CHANGES WED AS DEEPENING LOW PRES WILL LIFT NE WELL TO THE W
LATER WED. THIS FEATURE WILL PULL A WARM FRONT N THROUGH THE
REGION BY WED EVENING. STRONG ISENT LIFT DEVELOPS FROM S TO N WED
AFTN AND WILL SEE SHRA BECOME NUMEROUS BY WED EVENING. WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU LOOKS TO BE MOST ACTIVE AS STRONG LOW LVL JET
MOVES OVER THE REGION. LOOKS LIKE TYPICAL COOL SEASON EVENT WITH
STRONG FORCING/SHEAR WITH LIMITED INSTAB. FOR NOW KEPT MENTION OF
TSRA IN ALL AREAS WED NIGHT INTO THU MORN COAST. IF GET ENOUGH
INSTAB WILL HAVE DEFINITE SEVERE THREAT GIVEN LOW LVL JET AOA 60
KTS. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ALL AREAS WED NIGHT WITH QPF
TOTALS RANGING FROM 3/4 OF AND INCH TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED WIND ADVRY...ESPCLY CST...GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW
LVL JET. SHRA/POSS TSRA WILL END FROM W TO E THU MORN AS DRIER AIR
SURGES IN AS LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN WELL TO THE N. WILL BE VERY MILD
IN WARM SECTOR WED NIGHT WITH LOWER 60S MOST SPOTS...SHLD CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 60S THU DESPITE SOME CAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...MAINLY QUIET AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH UPR TRF CROSSING. 12Z GFS SHOWS SFC LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR CST LATER FRI NIGHT AND SAT AHEAD OF UPR TRF WITH
SOME RAIN OVER THE REGION. MOST OTHER MDLS KEEP THE LOW AND ASSOC
PRECIP FURTHER OFFSHORE. ADDED A SLIGHT POP CSTL WTRS LATE FRI
NIGHT EARLY SAT OTHERWISE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TOM GET ABOVE 50....OTHERWISE
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE 30S INLAND
TO LOWER/MID 40S OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL CLOUDS CLEAR 04-06Z 
OVER AREA. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN DIMINISH EARLY 
TUE...OTRW VFR. 

.OUTLOOK TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PSBL
SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG LOW PRES MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS. STRONG S/SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM WEDS NIGHT AND THURS. COLD...DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY SW WINDS STILL 
OVER SRN HALF OF WATERS WITH RAPID SHIFT TO N-NW REST OF WATERS. 
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS BEHIND LINE OF SHRA HANDLED 
WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. PERIOD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY 
OVERNIGHT...THEN DIMINISHING TUE MORNING. ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES 
WAS TO INITIATE WITH SCA FOR ALB SOUND. 

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR 
AMZ135-150-156-     158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ130.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...CTC/JBM
MARINE...JBM