FXUS63 KMPX 111112
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
512 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE STILL OVER AREA THIS MORNING BUT MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PATTERN SHOULD COMMENCE THIS MORNING FIRST OVER
SOUTHERN MN AND THEN TRANSLATING INTO NORTHERN MN LATER TODAY.
COLUMN MOISTURE ON THE DRY SIDE EXCEPT FOR HIGHER LEVELS. THERE IS
A PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS /050-070/ FROM SE SD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
MN. THE RUC IS INDICATING THE INITIAL WARM ADVECTION IN THIS AREA
THIS MORNING. WILL START OUT SKY GRIDS ON THE SCANT SIDE THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUAL DEVELOP CLOUDS TOWARD THE NORTH WITH TIME.
THE WARMING CONTINUES TONIGHT...AND TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH SW
AREAS...BUT AN INITIAL DROP WISCONSIN AREAS THIS EVENING. 

WE SHOULD GET INTO A RELATIVELY MILD SECTOR IN THE SOUTHERN CWA
ON SATURDAY...WHILE A SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS AFFECTING FAR SE AREAS FOR A FEW RUNS WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THE LOW
LEVELS MAY WARM ENOUGH FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE SCENARIO SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK AND RISING DEW
POINTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SOME LOW CLOUDS. 

THERE IS THEN AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR A WAVE TO OVERRUN THE
SE SAGGING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A LITTLE EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT PART OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SNOW. WILL INCREASE
POPS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AS A START. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE TRICKY ON SUNDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH. WOULD
THINK THAT AT LEAST SOUTHERN AREA MAY STILL SEE SOME MID 20S. 

THE NEXT ARCTIC PLUNGE IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN FOR
TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN AGREEING MORE. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS TO BE SOME DECENT WINDS IF THE
GFS ENDS UP BEING CORRECT WITH THE SHARPER WAVE. ALSO A PERIOD OF
CLEAR SKIES IN IT'S WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING WIND
SHEAR LATE THIS AFTN AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
FOR AXN/STC/RNH/EAU. AS A SFC RIDGE DEPARTS THE AREA...AND A STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CANADA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTN AND INCREASE. A FEW GUSTS OF 18 TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IF ANY MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS. WINDS ABOUT
1000' ABV THE SFC ARE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 40/45
KTS...SO WIND SHEAR REMAINS A PROBLEM TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AOA 3500' FOR ALL AVIATION TERMINALS IN MPX CWA. ..JLT..

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/JLT