FXUS63 KGID 271741 AAA
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1141 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z KGRI TAF. VERY QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
EXPECTED FOR THE GRAND ISLAND TERMINAL AS ONLY SOME THIN MID TO
HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7 TO 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER...LITTLE
ELSE WILL RESULT FROM THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE VISIBILITY REMAINS
UNLIMITED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2009/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS
TODAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
EXPECT 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 14 TO 16C RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
WESTERLY...WHICH ADDS INTO THE EQUATION THAT DOWNSLOPE WARMING
COMPONENT. CONSEQUENTLY...TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL RUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY WITH NORTH WINDS
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPERATURES TAKE A TUMBLE
AND DESPITE INCREASED MIXING...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC
WILL ALSO TUMBLE BY PERHAPS 10F. THE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE -2 TO -5C RANGE ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO
THE LOWER 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALL OF THE MOISTURE WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA.

TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODERATE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH THE LEAD
TROUGH SLIDING EAST AND SFC WINDS ONCE AGAIN BECOMING MORE
WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH THESE DAYS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
50S. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S.

HOWEVER...THE THE BIG REALITY CHECK WILL BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT SENDS PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BARRELING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE 30S ON
WEDNESDAY AND COULD BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY DEPENDING ON
WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING
850MB TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE -9 TO -11C RANGE. THIS WOULD LIKELY
MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SFC HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EVEN REACH THE
FREEZING MARK. THE COLD AIR COULD THEN LINGER FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$