FXUS65 KLKN 151141
AFDLKN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
341 AM PST TUE DEC 15 2009
.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND TODAY BRINGING
A SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NEVADA BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW TO HUMBOLDT AND ELKO COUNTIES. THE SNOW LEVEL IS FORECAST AT
6000 FEET. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK
INTO THE GREAT BASIN...RESULTING IN A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A STORM IS PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. AREAS NORTH OF THE LKN CWA WILL BEAR THE
BRUNT OF THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL SPILL OVER INTO
NORTHERN NEVADA. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN DRIER THAN BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM...POPS THIS FORECAST PERIOD HEDGED TOWARDS THE
NCEP MODELS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CONSIST OF A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL HOVERING AROUND 6000 FEET.
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL MATERIALIZE OVER
THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA WHERE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL
COME INTO PLAY. DURING THIS EVENT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LKN
CWA WILL REMAIN DRY...HOWEVER...WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCES INCREASE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS AREA
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HAVE CLEARED EASTERN NEVADA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ROCKIES DURING THE
LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. SOME MOISTURE TRIES TO SEEP OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND HAVE KEPT LOW END
ISOLATED POPS IN FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 15/00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOWERING CLOUD
COVER AND CHANCES FOR -SHRA/-SHSN NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. EXPECT
MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS KWMC AND KEKO TAF SITES THROUGH WED
MORNING...WITH KELY AND KTPH REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM PST
WEDNESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.
&&
$$
97/86/86
