FXUS63 KDLH 290527
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1127 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...RADAR INDICATES SOME LIGHT SNOW HAD OCCURED
AT BRD AND SOME MAY FALL AT HYR. ALOS MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FORCAST AREA. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT
WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER UNTIL SUNSET. VSBYS AMY DROP DOWN INTO
MVFR OVERNIGHT IN THE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
THE AREA REMAINS IN UNSEASONABLY MILD AND DRY PACIFIC AIR. A FAST
FLOW OF LOW-AMPLIDUDE WAVES AND OCCASIONAL MINOR CUT-OFFS IS
BRINGING A DEEP COLUMN OF AIR FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND IS
WRINGING OUT ITS MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE
BACKING OF THE FLOW BY THE MOUNTAINS AND THE HEAT OF CONDENSATION
DRIES AND WARMS THE AIR THAT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FLOW...NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MANITOBA
LAKES...A STORM TRACK CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED. COLD AIR BEHIND
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...BROUGHT SHALLOW
AND NOT VERY COLD AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT...NOW MOVING THROUGH
CHICAGO. THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING MILDER AIR INTO OUR AREA AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF THE MANITOBA LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
SCANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WARMING MAY RESULT IN FLURRIES OR A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...WITH SOME LEFT OVER
FLURRIES FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ENDING SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW...MOVING OVER EXACTLY THE SAME TRACK...WILL BRING ANOTHER
SMALL CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF DULUTH AS MORE WARM AIR
TRIES TO GET INTO OUR AREA MONDAY. THEN...A DEEP LOW WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW NORTH OF DULUTH...
FOLLOWED BY PRONOUNCED WARMING TUESDAY. THIS LAST LOW MAY BECOME
DEEP ENOUGH TO MOVE A LARGER AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FROM NORTHWESTERN
CANADA SLOWLY TOWARD OUR AREA AFTER IT MOVES EAST OF THE MANITOBA
LAKES AND TOWARD HUDSON BAY LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY.
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER 
MIDWEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING A PATTERN 
CHANGE WITH COLDER AIR TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. 
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS 
OUR FCST AREA DUE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND LITTLE MOISTURE OVER THE 
UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER WITH LAKE/AIR DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN 12C AND 
20C ALONG WITH A FAVORABLE WIND FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS PROBABLE 
ACROSS THE SNOWBELT OF NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  34  25  36 /  30  10  10  10 
INL  24  31  19  32 /  40  20  10  30 
BRD  27  34  23  37 /  30  10  10  10 
HYR  27  34  21  37 /  30  10  10  10 
ASX  31  34  24  36 /  50  40  10  30 

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

STEWART