FXUS61 KILN 030625
AFDILN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
125 AM EST THU DEC 3 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT...BRINGING RAIN. NORTHWEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CINCINNATI AREA WILL CONTINUE ITS
NORTHEAST TREK THIS EVENING...TRACKING JUST WEST OF COLUMBUS BY
LATE EVENING. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW...IN THE VICINITY OF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND MIDLEVEL PVA. ADDITIONAL AREA OF RAIN STRETCHING
ACROSS MUCH OF INDIANA INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEFORMATION AXIS BEHIND THE SFC LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SWING
THROUGH THE CWA LATER TONIGHT...BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS DEFORMATION WEAKENS. MADE TWEAKS TO
TEMPS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS...WITH TEMPS ALREADY DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. KEPT MENTION OF SNOW OUT
OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...SINCE BY THE TIME LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW MIXTURE...AIRMASS WILL NOT BE SATURATED
ABOVE THE -10C LEVEL SO ANY PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE DRIZZLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES PROBABLY
WILL NOT GO TOO FAR FROM OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE DAY. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY.
RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES WERE...FRANKLY...NOT TERRIBLY SUPPORTIVE OF
MUCH TRANSITION TO SNOW BEFORE THE MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY HAVE KEPT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS.
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR UP A BIT BY
FRIDAY...AND HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING...SHOULD SEE CHILLY LOWS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH NUMBERS CLOSE TO MET GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY.
THE MAIN FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE UP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP
TYPE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TRACK OF THE LOW. AT THIS POINT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT PRECIP WILL START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN
TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW DURING THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND THEN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW CURRENTLY NR MFD WILL CONTINUE TO PULL NE. CDFNT JUST W OF
CMH/LCK WILL PUSH THRU BY 07-08Z SHIFTING WINDS TO THE W. WINDS
JUST BEHIND FNT ARE GUSTING AROUND 25KT.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW WILL BRING NW/W WINDS TO THE TAFS. THERE
IS AN AREA OF IFR CIGS RIGHT BEHIND FNT...BUT THEN CIGS LIFT TO
MVFR. WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE OVER INDIANA TRIES TO WORK E...SO
MIGHT SEE AN ISOLATED SH EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
CYCLONIC CAA FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS ACRS THE TAFS TODAY. COULD
SEE A LIGHT SHSN...BUT CHC IS LOW AT A TAFS SITE TO REDUCE THE
VSBYS SO LEFT IT OUT. AFT 00Z FLOW BEGINS TO BACK OFF THE GREAT
LAKES AND CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE
AFT 06Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HATZOS
NEAR TERM...HAWBLITZEL
SHORT TERM...HATZOS
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...SITES
