FXUS63 KJKL 250818
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 AM EST FRI DEC 25 2009
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SO
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.
A VERY POTENT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
VAD IS SHOWING SOME VERY IMPRESSIVE WINDS. 50 KNOT WINDS WERE JUST 2K
FT AGL AND 80 KTS AT 5K AGL. SINCE THIS SE FLOW IS PERPENDICULAR TO
THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE VA AND TN BORDERS...THE PREVIOUS SHIFT PUT
OUT A HIGH WIND WARNING. THIS TYPE OF SYNOPTIC SITUATION IS FAVORABLE
FOR GRAVITY WAVES TO BRING THOSE HIGHER GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
IT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT WHERE THIS MIGHT HAPPEN...SO THE
WARNING IS FOR THE FOUR COUNTIES ALONG THE BORDER. ALREADY SEE THE GUSTS
PICKING UP ACROSS THE AREA. MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE SOME MORE TREES DOWN
FROM THIS STORM...EVEN WITH 30 TO 45 MPH GUSTS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
MORE PROBLEMS WITH POWER OUTAGES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DRY SLOT WILL
DOMINATE UNTIL THE WRAP AROUND FINALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE UPPER LOW WILL LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING OFF TO THE NE BY
TUESDAY AND SOME RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. JUST TWEAKED
THE TEMPS A LITTLE BASED ON MODEL AND MOS TRENDS.
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AN IMPRESSIVE PAIR OF DUMB BELLING LOWS WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE LAST TIME BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO TURN WEAKLY UPSLOPE ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND KEPT PROBABILITY AS A CHANCE THOUGH DID RAISE
IT SOME. BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE SUNDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY.
LONGWAVE PATTERN TO BECOME SLIGHTLY PROGRESSIVE NEXT WEEK WHILE
CONUS TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...WITH A
DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM. GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ABOUT NEW YEARS EVE. ECMWF SHOWS A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH AND THUS DRAWS GULF MOISTURE AND WARM AIR FARTHER
NORTH THAN DOES GFS. ECMWF HAS PERFORMED BETTER OF LATE BUT IS TOO
EARLY TO JUMP WITH BOTH FEET.
&&
.AVIATION.../06Z TO 06Z/
WINDS AND WIND SHEAR ARE THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS THIS TAF
PERIOD...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 50KTS OR GREATER AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH AROUND 8Z OR SO.
DURING THIS TIME...SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL THOUGH THESE
SHOULD PEAK OUT IN THE 10-20KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z FRIDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-088-118-
120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...GV
AVIATION...
